Match report →
PSV – Club Brugge1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
PSV
2.35
Total xG
3.96
Club Brugge
1.61
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | PSV | Club Brugge |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.84 | +0.84 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.6 goals/match) | +0.37 | |
| Rising form (3.6 vs 2.4 season average) | +0.37 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 28 vs 19, 9 places gap) | −0.23 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2 goals/match) | −0.23 | |
| Declining form (2 vs 2.8 season average) | −0.23 | |
| Attack strength (1.27x league average) | +0.18 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 19 vs 28, 9 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | −0.04 | |
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 2.4 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home/Away: PSV average 3.5 goals per game at home in the league this season, Club Brugge concede 1 per game away
- Goal picture: The model expects 2.35 to 1.61 goals, with a 76% probability of over 2.5 goals
Risks
- Form: Club Brugge won their last 5 matches, scoring 3.6 goals per game
- Tactics: Club Brugge recorded 7 shots on target per game in their last 5 matches, PSV 5.4 per game
All probabilities
Result
PSV53%
Draw22%
Club Brugge25%
Double chance
PSV or draw75%
Club Brugge or draw47%
No draw78%
Goals
Over 1.591%
Under 1.59%
Over 2.576%
Under 2.524%
Over 3.556%
Under 3.544%
Both teams score
Yes73%
No27%
xG score
2:1
From xG 2.35 : 1.61, rounded up only from .98% probability
Other likely scores
2:2
7%
3:1
7%
1:2
6%
3:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Club Brugge: 10 wins in 12 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)
- Club Brugge: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
Lineups
PSV 4-2-3-1 · Club Brugge 4-1-4-1
PSV
- 32 M. Kovář
- 8 S. Dest
- 2 L. Geertruida
- 4 A. Obispo
- 18 F. Kostić
- 24 K. Sano
- 17 M. Ferreira dos Santos
- 5 I. Perišić
- 21 S. Mijnans
- 7 R. van Bommel
- 20 G. Til
Club Brugge
- 1 Y. Sommer
- 64 K. Sabbe
- 58 J. Spileers
- 44 B. Mechele
- 65 J. Seys
- 8 F. Potts
- 9 C. Borges
- 10 H. Vetlesen
- 20 H. Vanaken
- 11 J. Virgili Tenas
- 7 N. Tresoldi
Substitutes
- 23 M. Bro Hansen
- 25 K. Sildillia
- 31 N. Fernandez
- 1 N. Olij
- 6 R. Flamingo
- 3 Y. Gąsiorowski Hernandis
- 27 D. Man
- 9 R. Pepi
- 19 E. Bajraktarevic
- 51 T. Smolenaars
- 35 A. Santos
- 77 A. Vasovic
- 16 C. Tsawa
- 80 F. Lemaréchal
- 67 M. Diakhon
- 41 H. Siquet
- 62 L. Audoor
- 17 R. Vermant
- 29 N. Jackers
- 3 H. Lee
- 81 A. Vanden Driessche
- 32 M. Dams
- 39 M. Robberechts
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →