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Uzbekistan – Iran3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Uzbekistan
1.26
Total xG
2.97
Iran
1.70
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Uzbekistan | Iran |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.64x league average) | +0.74 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.26 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.14 |
Key factors
- Contrast in recent form: Iran is unbeaten in their last 5 matches while Uzbekistan suffered 5 consecutive losses
- Iranian offensive form: The visitors currently average 2.8 goals, exceeding their season average of 2.4
- Struggling home attack: Uzbekistan recently averaged just 1.6 shots on target per match
Risks
- Historically low-scoring matches at the Milliy Stadion with an average of just 1.8 goals per game
- Strong home defense of Uzbekistan conceding only 0.38 goals per home match
- Vulnerable away defense of Iran conceding an average of 1.5 goals per away match
All probabilities
Result
Uzbekistan27%
Draw27%
Iran46%
Double chance
Uzbekistan or draw54%
Iran or draw73%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.557%
Under 2.543%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.566%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
9%
0:2
7%
2:1
7%
2:2
6%
3:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Iran with Mohammad Mohebi starting: 2.1 goals/game, without him: 1.1 (12/7 games, last 19)
- Uzbekistan: 6 of 17 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 9 games)
- Uzbekistan: opponent scores first in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- Iran: opponent scores first in 5 of 7 games (71%)
Lineups
Uzbekistan 4-2-3-1 · Iran 4-2-3-1
Uzbekistan
- 12 V. Nazarov
- 4 B. Karimov
- 2 A. Khusanov
- 5 J. O'rozov
- 13 S. Nasrullayev
- 9 O. Khamrobekov
- 10 A. Ganiev
- 17 D. Khamdamov
- 6 A. Mozgovoy
- 22 A. Fayzullayev
- 14 E. Shomurodov
Iran
- 1 A. Safar Beiranvand
- 2 S. Hardani
- 18 S. Fallah
- 19 A. Nemati
- 3 E. Hajsafi
- 21 O. Noorafkan
- 6 S. Ezatolahi Afagh
- 29 M. Mohebi
- 9 M. Taremi
- 17 A. Yousefi
- 24 D. Eckert Ayensa
Substitutes
- 7 U. Rahmonaliyev
- 23 S. Esanov
- 24 D. Kholmatov
- 19 R. Jiyanov
- 21 H. Norchayev
- 3 K. Alidjanov
- 15 M. Abdumajidov
- 20 A. Amonov
- 8 J. Jaloliddinov
- 25 M. Makhamadjonov
- 16 E. Nemanov
- 27 M. Khakimov
- 18 B. Uktamov
- 11 A. Kholmurodov
- 26 Nurmuhammad Abdug'aniyev
- 11 M. Limouchi
- 20 S. Azmoun
- 23 R. Rezaeian
- 22 S. Hosseini
- 4 S. Khalilzadeh
- 12 P. Niazmand
- 16 M. Ghorbani
- 13 M. Zare Mohazabieh
- 33 A. Aghasi Kolahsorkhi
- 28 M. Naderi
- 25 A. Mahmoudi
- 26 M. Sourgi
- 31 S. Zahedi
- 27 A. Haji Eydi
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