Friendly International

Uzbekistan - Iran

09/24/2026, 02:00 PM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Uzbekistan
1.3
Total xG
3.0
Iran
1.7
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

0:2

7%

2:1

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
UZBIRA

Uzbekistan

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.26

Iran

Attack strength (1.64x league average)
+0.74
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.14
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Iran with Mohammad Mohebi starting: 2.1 goals/game, without him: 1.1 (12/7 games, last 19)

  • 2
    Uzbekistan: 6 of 17 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 9 games)

  • 3
    Uzbekistan: opponent scores first in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 4
    Iran: opponent scores first in 5 of 7 games (71%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

27%

Draw

27%

Away Win

46%

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

57%

Under 2.5

43%

Over 3.5

35%

Under 3.5

66%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

54%

Away or Draw

73%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • Contrast in recent form: Iran is unbeaten in their last 5 matches while Uzbekistan suffered 5 consecutive losses
  • Iranian offensive form: The visitors currently average 2.8 goals, exceeding their season average of 2.4
  • Struggling home attack: Uzbekistan recently averaged just 1.6 shots on target per match
Risk Factors
  • Historically low-scoring matches at the Milliy Stadion with an average of just 1.8 goals per game
  • Strong home defense of Uzbekistan conceding only 0.38 goals per home match
  • Vulnerable away defense of Iran conceding an average of 1.5 goals per away match
Overview

Uzbekistan face Iran at the Milliy Stadion

Friendly International on September 24, 2026, 4:00 PM

Iran enter the match as the mathematical favorites with a 46% win probability

Form

Uzbekistan show a weak form curve of LLLLL

The home side suffered 5 consecutive defeats in their last matches

Iran present a stable form curve of WWDDD

The visitors remain undefeated in their last 5 fixtures

Statistics

Uzbekistan average 1.69 goals scored and 0.69 conceded per season match

At home they average 1.75 goals scored and just 0.38 goals conceded

Iran average 2.19 goals scored and 0.75 goals conceded per match

Away from home Iran concede an average of 1.5 goals per match

Head-to-Head

Only 1 head-to-head match is recorded between these teams

Their last encounter on November 18, 2025, ended in a 0:0 draw

An evenly balanced historical record between both nations

Key Players

Eldor Shomurodov scored 3 goals in his last 5 appearances

Bekhruz Karimov recorded 1 goal and 1 assist with a rising form trend

Mehdi Taremi led the visitors with 3 goals in his last 5 matches

Goalkeepers

Vladimir Nazarov is named in goal for Uzbekistan

Alireza Beiranvand features in goal for Iran with a rising form trend and a 7.23 rating

Uzbekistan registered 10 clean sheets this season compared to 9 for Iran

Influences

Home advantage for Uzbekistan at the Milliy Stadion

Venue history indicates a low average of 1.8 goals per match

The friendly match will be played on natural grass

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