Friendly International

Russia - Nigeria

10/06/2026, 04:00 PM

3 : 3
Expected Goals
Russia
1.4
Total xG
2.8
Nigeria
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

8%

1:2

8%

2:0

6%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
RUSNIG

Russia

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match)
+0.37
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15

Nigeria

Attack strength (1.3x league average)
+0.36
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.11
Akor Adams on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
21% of goal output missing (only 51% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Russia: first goal in 9 of 11 games (82%)

  • 2
    Russia: 62% of all goals in the first half (16 of 26, last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

36%

Draw

28%

Away Win

35%

Goals

Over 1.5

79%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

54%

Under 2.5

46%

Over 3.5

31%

Under 3.5

69%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

65%

Away or Draw

64%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

59%

No

41%

Key Factors
  • Critical absence: Only 52% of Nigeria's seasonal goal threat is active as Akor Adams is missing
  • Tactical dominance: Russia averaged 7.2 shots on target per match in recent games
  • Balanced model: The predicted win probability is almost even with 36% for Russia and 35% for Nigeria
Risk Factors
  • Short recovery: Russia have only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Low offensive efficiency: Nigeria averaged only 3.4 shots on target per game recently
Overview

Russia host Nigeria in an international friendly match

Played at Gazprom Arena on October 6, 2026, at 6:00 PM

A highly balanced encounter is expected

Form

Russia show the form LWWWW with four consecutive wins recently

Nigeria travel with the form WDWDL

Form code: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Russia score an average of 2.43 goals at home and conceded only one goal in 7 home games

Nigeria score an average of 1.75 goals and concede 1.25 goals per away game

Head-to-Head

There has been one head-to-head match in June 2025

The game ended in a 1-1 draw

Key Players

Lechi Sadulaev scored 3 goals in 6 matches with an average rating of 7.22

Aleksey Miranchuk has been in good form with a rating of 7.26

Moses Simon scored 2 goals in 3 appearances this season

Goalkeepers

Aleksandr Maksimenko starts in goal for Russia

Samuel Friday James plays as goalkeeper for Nigeria

Russia kept 5 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match is played on natural grass

Light rain and temperatures around 12°C are expected

Russia's strong home record is a significant factor

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