Friendly International

Argentina - Burkina Faso

10/04/2026, 12:00 AM

7 : 0
Expected Goals
Argentina
1.7
Total xG
2.7
Burkina Faso
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

10%

2:0

10%

1:2

6%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
ARGBF

Argentina

Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.67
Attack strength (1.3x league average)
+0.32
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.17
Lionel Messi  not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)

Burkina Faso

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.21
Attack strength (1.37x league average)
-0.10
100% of goal output missing (only 0% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Argentina: 6 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)

  • 2
    Argentina: 13 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against England: 2 goals (86', 90+2')

  • 3
    Argentina: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)

  • 4
    Argentina: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 5
    Burkina Faso: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

53%

Draw

27%

Away Win

20%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

80%

Away or Draw

47%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • Limited squad: Burkina Faso enters the match with only 0% of their usual starting XI strength
  • Possession and offense: Argentina averaged 58.2% possession and 5.0 shots on target in recent matches
  • Model prediction: The mathematical analysis estimates a home win probability of 53%
Risk Factors
  • High workload: Argentina has only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Squad absence: Lionel Messi is missing from the hosts' squad
  • Limited data coverage for Burkina Faso's xG values
Overview

Argentina faces Burkina Faso in an international friendly at the Estadio Monumental

The match is scheduled for October 4, 2026, 12:00 AM

The mathematical analysis favors the hosts with a 53% win probability

Form

Argentina is in strong form with four wins and one loss in their last five matches

Their current form is WWWLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Most recently, they achieved a clear 4-0 victory against Bolivia

Burkina Faso shows a more balanced record with two wins, two draws, and one loss (Form: WWDLD)

Statistics

Argentina averages 1.72 goals scored and only 0.56 goals conceded per match this season

In home matches, their goals conceded rate drops to a strong 0.33 per game while scoring 1.67 goals

Burkina Faso scores an average of 2.3 goals per game and concedes 0.8 goals

In away matches, their scoring average stands at 2.17 goals per game

Key Players

Lautaro Martínez shines with two season goals, one assist, and a rating of 7.49

Nico Paz also contributed two goals and one assist in four appearances (Rating: 7.72)

Alexis Mac Allister provided two assists and holds a rating of 7.08

For Burkina Faso, Chec Bebel Doumbia is registered with no appearances this season

Goalkeepers

Emiliano Martínez guards the goal for Argentina, boasting 11 clean sheets this season

His form trend is rising with a recent rating of 7.10

Cyrille Dao is named in the lineup for Burkina Faso

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estadio Monumental under comfortable 20.81°C temperatures and scattered clouds

Historical venue statistics show an average of 2.33 goals per match

Both teams scored in two of the three matches played at this location

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