Friendly International

Argentina - Bolivia

10/01/2026, 12:00 AM

4 : 0
Expected Goals
Argentina
1.5
Total xG
2.3
Bolivia
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

13%

0:0

11%

2:0

11%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
ARGBOL

Argentina

Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.67
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.13
Attack strength (1.27x league average)
+0.01
Lionel Messi  not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
31% of goal output missing (only 65% available)

Bolivia

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.18
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.04
100% of goal output missing (only 0% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Argentina: 6 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)

  • 2
    Bolivia: opponent scores first in 8 of 9 games (89%)

  • 3
    Argentina: 12 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against England: 2 goals (86', 90+2')

  • 4
    Argentina: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)

  • 5
    Argentina: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 6
    Bolivia with Ramiro Vaca starting: 1.2 goals/game, without him: 0.7 (12/15 games, last 28)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

51%

Draw

30%

Away Win

20%

Goals

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

41%

Under 2.5

59%

Over 3.5

21%

Under 3.5

79%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

80%

Away or Draw

49%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

46%

No

54%

Key Factors
  • Defensive mismatch: Argentina concedes only 0.56 goals per game, while Bolivia struggled immensely on the road, conceding 7.00 goals per away match
  • Tactical dominance: Argentina averaged 57% possession and 5.8 shots on target per match in recent performances
  • Head-to-head superiority: Argentina secured victories in 4 of the last 5 encounters, highlighted by a dominant 6-0 win in their last meeting
Risk Factors
  • Lionel Messi is missing from the squad, leaving Argentina with only 66% of their seasonal goal threat
  • Lack of match rhythm: Argentina played their last competitive match 74 days ago
  • Offensive struggles for Bolivia: The visitors failed to score in 8 out of 18 matches this season
Overview

Friendly International match on October 1, 2026 at Estadio Juan Domingo Perón

Argentina hosts Bolivia in an international test match

The home side enters the match as clear favorites

Form

Argentina is in solid shape with a form of WWWWL

They recorded 4 wins and 1 loss in their last 5 matches

Bolivia travels with a poor form of WLLLL

The visitors have suffered 4 consecutive defeats recently

Statistics

Argentina scores an average of 1.72 goals and concedes 0.56 per match

Bolivia averages 0.94 goals scored and 1.94 goals conceded

Bolivia's defense is highly vulnerable on the road, conceding an average of 7.00 goals per away game

Head-to-Head

There are 5 head-to-head matches on record

Argentina dominates the history with 4 wins compared to 1 win for Bolivia

Their last duel on October 16, 2024 ended in a commanding 6-0 victory for Argentina

Key Players

Lautaro Martínez is in great form with a 7.52 rating and 4 goals in his last 5 matches

Nico Paz contributed 1 goal and 3 assists in his last 5 games

Gianluca Prestianni has been effective with 3 goals in his last 5 appearances

Ramiro Vaca leads Bolivia with a season rating of 6.56

Robson Matheus starts in midfield with a 5.95 rating

Roberto Fernández features in defense with a 6.12 average rating

Goalkeepers

Emiliano Martínez starts for Argentina, holding a 6.87 rating and 11 clean sheets this season

Guillermo Viscarra is in goal for Bolivia, keeping 6 clean sheets with a 6.3 rating

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at Estadio Juan Domingo Perón

The venue averages 2.6 total goals per game

Argentina remains very stable at home, conceding only 0.33 goals per home game

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