Friendly International

Morocco - Mali

10/04/2026, 06:00 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Morocco
1.4
Total xG
2.4
Mali
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

11%

0:0

11%

2:0

9%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
MORMAL

Morocco

Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.61
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.08
Achraf Hakimi on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
19% of goal output missing (only 58% available)

Mali

3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Attack strength (1.21x league average)
-0.14
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.04
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Morocco: 48% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (10 of 21)

  • 2
    Morocco: 7 of 22 goals scored by substitutes (last 11 games)

  • 3
    Morocco: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (2 points rescued)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

45%

Draw

30%

Away Win

24%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

76%

Away or Draw

55%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

49%

No

51%

Key Factors
  • Squad weakness: Achraf Hakimi is not in the squad, leaving Morocco with only 59% of their usual starting strength
  • Tactical dominance: Morocco recently dominated play, averaging 61% possession and 4.6 shots on target per match
  • Goal trends: While Morocco's goal production recently slowed to 1.8 goals per game, Mali scored consistently, averaging 2.1 goals
Risk Factors
  • Achraf Hakimi is missing, leaving only 59% of Morocco's usual starting strength available
  • Lack of recent match practice due to extremely long breaks of 87 days for Morocco and 187 days for Mali since their last matches
  • Mali showed low offensive efficiency recently, averaging only 3.2 shots on target per match
Overview

Morocco faces Mali in an international friendly match

The match takes place on October 4, 2026, 6:00 PM at Stade Mohamed V

The mathematical analysis estimates a home win probability of 45% for Morocco

Form

Morocco shows a recent form of WWDWL

The last match of Morocco ended in a loss

Mali has a recent form of LWWDD

The last two matches of Mali ended in a draw

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Morocco averaged 2.75 goals scored and 0.25 goals conceded per match this season

In home games, Morocco scored an average of 2.5 goals per match

Mali recorded a season average of 1.7 goals scored and 0.6 goals conceded per match

Away from home, Mali conceded only 0.33 goals per game on average

Head-to-Head

No historical head-to-head records between these two teams are available in the provided dataset

Key Players

Ismael Saibari stands out with a season rating of 7.53 and 2 goals scored

Neil El Aynaoui contributed 2 goals for Morocco this season

Azzedine Ounahi scored 2 goals in his last 5 matches

Mamadou Samassa leads Mali with an outstanding season rating of 8.15

Ousmane Camara provided 1 assist over his last 5 appearances

Lassana Coulibaly scored 2 goals and added 1 assist in his last 5 games

Goalkeepers

Yassine Bounou has an average rating of 6.76 in 3 season appearances

Mamadou Samassa holds a season rating of 8.15 in 1 appearance

Morocco achieved 6 clean sheets this season

Mali recorded 5 clean sheets in their seasonal games

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at Stade Mohamed V

The venue history shows an average of 3.0 goals per match

Current weather reports 22.62°C with overcast clouds and 90% humidity

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