šŸ‡ØšŸ‡­

Super League

St. Gallen - Lugano

03/17/2026, 06:00 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
St. Gallen
1.5
Total xG
2.8
Lugano
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

1:2

7%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
SGLUG

St. Gallen

Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.53
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.14
Rising form (2.6 vs 2.2 season average)
+0.14
Alessandro Vogt not in squad (14 goals, 3 assists)
18% of goal output missing (only 85% available)

Lugano

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.14
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.7 season average)
-0.14
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.07
Kevin Behrens not in squad (11 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.7 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.79
+0.79
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

42%

Draw

28%

Away Win

30%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

70%

Away or Draw

58%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • St. Gallen's strong home offense (Avg. 2.07 goals per home game) meets Lugano's vulnerable away defense (Avg. 1.64 goals conceded per away game)
  • St. Gallen is in excellent form (3 wins, 2 draws in their last 5 games), while Lugano's form (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses) is weaker
  • The historical record favors St. Gallen, who dominated the last 5 direct encounters (3 wins, 2 draws)
Risk Factors
  • Limited data availability for tackling statistics in the last 5 games of both teams
Overview

St. Gallen (2nd place, 54 points) host Lugano (3rd place, 49 points) at Kybunpark

Super League match on March 17, 2026, 7:00 PM

The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 42%, while a draw is rated at 28% and an away win at 30%

Form

St. Gallen shows excellent form with WDWDW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) in their last five games

They achieved 3 wins and 2 draws

They recently defeated Basel 3-0

Lugano's form is mixed with DWLWL

They recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last five matches

Their last game was a 1-3 loss against Luzern

Statistics

St. Gallen averages 2.00 goals scored per game and concedes 1.21 goals

In home games, the average is 2.07 goals scored and 1.21 goals conceded

Lugano averages 1.59 goals scored and concedes 1.24 goals per match

Away from home, Lugano scores 1.55 goals and concedes an average of 1.64 goals

Kybunpark averages 3.0 goals per game

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 games (BTTS rate 60%)

More than 2.5 goals were scored in 4 of 5 games (Over 2.5 rate 80%)

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches between St. Gallen and Lugano, St. Gallen secured 3 wins and there were 2 draws

Lugano failed to win any of these matches

St. Gallen scored a total of 8 goals, while Lugano scored 4 goals

The last encounter was won by St. Gallen on November 26, 2025, with a 3-1 scoreline

Recent history shows St. Gallen's dominance

Key Players

For St. Gallen, Carlo Boukhalfa with 11 goals and 3 assists, Lukas Gƶrtler with 5 goals and 8 assists, and Aliou BaldƩ with 8 goals are key offensive players

For Lugano, Daniel Dos Santos with 3 goals and 10 assists, Anto Grgic with 6 goals and 5 assists, and Uran Bislimi with 5 goals and 3 assists are crucial

Goalkeepers

Lawrence Ati Zigi of St. Gallen recorded 8 clean sheets this season

David von Ballmoos for Lugano had no clean sheets in 8 appearances this season

Lugano has a total of 7 clean sheets this season

Influences

St. Gallen's home strength is evident with an average of 2.07 goals scored and 1.21 goals conceded at Kybunpark

Lugano concedes an average of 1.64 goals away from home

Kybunpark is a stadium with an average of 3.0 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 60% of matches and over 2.5 goals in 80% of games

The match will be played on a grass surface

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.