Super League
Basel - Servette
03/15/2026, 03:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.5
2.5
1.1
1:1
14%2:1
9%2:0
9%1:2
7%2:2
5%What influences the xG?
Basel
Servette
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
45%
Draw
29%
Away Win
26%
Goals
Over 1.5
73%
Under 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
46%
Under 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
25%
Under 3.5
75%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
74%
Away or Draw
55%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
52%
No
48%
Key Factors
- Basel's home strength (1.46 home goals, 0.85 goals conceded) meets Servette's vulnerable away defense (1.80 goals conceded)
- Tactical advantage for Basel with an average of 4.6 shots on target compared to Servette's 2.6
- Historical home record: Basel won 3 of the last 5 head-to-head matches
Risk Factors
- Basel's goal production is currently stagnating (1.2 goals), compared to their season average (1.4 goals)
- Servette's offensive harmlessness is evident in an average of only 2.6 shots on target
Overview
Basel (4th place, 46 points) host Servette (9th place, 33 points) at St. Jakob-Park
Super League match on March 15, 2026, 4:30 PM
Basel are fighting for a European qualification spot, while Servette aim to increase their distance from the relegation zone
The mathematical analysis indicates a home win with 45% probability
Form
Basel showed a form of DLWWL across all competitions
This corresponds to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses
Basel's goal production is currently stagnating with an average of 1.2 goals, compared to their season average of 1.4 goals
Servette has a form of DDDDW
This is 1 win, 4 draws, and 0 losses in recent matches
Servette consistently scores an average of 1.5 goals per game
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Basel scores an average of 1.45 goals per game and concedes an average of 1.31 goals per game
The team kept 8 clean sheets
Servette scores an average of 1.62 goals per game and concedes an average of 1.83 goals per game
Servette kept 4 clean sheets
Basel scores an average of 1.46 goals at home and concedes an average of 0.85 goals at home
Servette scores an average of 1.67 goals away and concedes an average of 1.80 goals away
St. Jakob-Park records an average of 2.0 goals per game
According to mathematical analysis, the probability of over 1.5 goals is 73% and for both teams to score is 52%
Head-to-Head
In the 5 head-to-head matches, there were 3 wins for Basel, 1 win for Servette, and 1 draw
Basel scored 13 goals in these encounters, Servette 5 goals
The last meeting on December 20, 2025, ended in a 1:1 draw
The home team was more dominant in recent encounters
Key Players
For Basel, Xherdan Shaqiri (10 goals, 10 assists, avg 7.44), Dominik Schmid (2 goals, 5 assists, avg 7.37), and Bénie Traoré (7 goals) are important players
For Servette, Miroslav Stevanovic (8 goals, 5 assists, avg 7.24), Florian Ayé (9 goals, 2 assists), and Lilian Njoh (9 assists) stand out
Not selected for Basel are Andrej Bacanin (0 goals/2 assists) and Keigo Tsunemoto (1 goal/1 assist)
For Servette, Jérémy Guillemenot (6 goals/3 assists) and Bradley Mazikou (0 goals/2 assists) are missing
Goalkeepers
Marwin Hitz is the goalkeeper for Basel and played in 27 games
He achieved 8 clean sheets
Joël Mall is the goalkeeper for Servette and played in 25 games
He achieved 4 clean sheets
Influences
Basel's home record with 1.46 goals scored and 0.85 goals conceded per home game indicates a home advantage
St. Jakob-Park records an average of 2.0 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 60% of matches and 40% of matches having over 2.5 goals