Super League
Luzern - Winterthur
03/15/2026, 03:30 PM
Expected Goals
2.4
3.6
1.2
2:1
9%3:1
8%3:0
6%2:2
6%1:2
5%What influences the xG?
Luzern
Winterthur
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
63%
Draw
21%
Away Win
17%
Goals
Over 1.5
88%
Under 1.5
12%
Over 2.5
70%
Under 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
48%
Under 3.5
52%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
83%
Away or Draw
37%
No Draw
79%
Both Score
Yes
65%
No
35%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis indicates a high probability of a home win for Luzern at 63%
- Luzern shows a positive form trend and is currently scoring more frequently (2.6) than their season average (2.0)
- Winterthur concedes an alarming average of 3.83 goals per away game
Risk Factors
- Luzern concedes an average of 1.94 goals per home game
- Winterthur's goal production is currently faltering (0.8) compared to their season average (1.1)
Overview
Luzern (7th place, 36 points) host Winterthur (12th place, 16 points) at Sportplatz Chrüzmatt
Super League match on March 15, 2026, 4:30 PM
Luzern aims for mid-table improvement, while Winterthur urgently needs points in the relegation battle
Form
Luzern's form across all competitions is WWLLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
This corresponds to 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 games
Winterthur's away form is LLLDD with 3 losses and 2 draws
Luzern recently defeated Lugano away 3:1 and Zürich away 4:1
Luzern's current form trend is positive, and they are scoring more frequently (2.6) than their season average (2.0)
Winterthur recently achieved two 1:1 draws against Sion away and Servette at home, but suffered three defeats before that
Winterthur's current form trend is negative, with goal production faltering (0.8) compared to their season average (1.1)
Statistics
Luzern scores an average of 1.97 goals and concedes 1.86 goals per game this season
At home, Luzern scores an average of 1.94 goals and concedes 1.94 goals
Winterthur scores an average of 1.1 goals and concedes 2.72 goals per game this season
Away from home, Winterthur scores an average of 1.08 goals but concedes an alarming 3.83 goals per away game
Luzern had both teams score in 23 games and over 2.5 goals in 23 games
Winterthur had both teams score in 20 games and over 2.5 goals in 23 games
The last 5 games at Sportplatz Chrüzmatt saw an average of 5.4 goals per match
In all 5 of these games, both teams scored, and over 2.5 goals were scored
Head-to-Head
In a total of 5 head-to-head matches, there have been 3 wins for Luzern, 1 win for Winterthur, and 1 draw
Luzern scored 13 goals, while Winterthur scored 10 goals
The last encounter on November 29, 2025, ended in a 1:3 away win for Winterthur
Recent matchups have been dominated by Luzern
Key Players
For Luzern, Matteo Di Giusto with 10 goals and 11 assists, and Oscar Kabwit with 7 goals and 4 assists, are crucial
Lucas Manuel Silva Ferreira contributed 7 goals and 2 assists, with his form trend declining
For Winterthur, Andrin Hunziker is the top scorer with 9 goals and 3 assists
Théo Golliard contributed 3 goals and 4 assists
Pajtim Kasami scored 2 goals, and his form trend is declining
Goalkeepers
Luzern's goalkeeper Pascal Loretz made 29 season appearances and kept 4 clean sheets
Winterthur's goalkeeper Stefanos Kapino also played in 29 season appearances but could not keep a single clean sheet
Influences
Luzern's home advantage could play a role due to their average of 1.94 home goals
However, they also concede an average of 1.94 home goals
Winterthur is particularly vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 3.83 goals
The history at Sportplatz Chrüzmatt suggests high-scoring encounters, with an average of 5.4 goals per game
In all 5 of the last games at the stadium, both teams scored and over 2.5 goals were scored
The playing surface is grass