Super League
Winterthur - Basel
03/22/2026, 01:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
3.1
1.7
1:1
12%1:2
9%2:1
7%0:2
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Winterthur
Basel
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
30%
Draw
26%
Away Win
44%
Goals
Over 1.5
83%
Under 1.5
17%
Over 2.5
61%
Under 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
38%
Under 3.5
62%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
56%
Away or Draw
70%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
64%
No
36%
Key Factors
- Basel's dominance in head-to-head matches with 5 wins in 5 games and 18:2 goals
- Winterthur's defensive vulnerability with an average of 1.94 goals conceded in home games
- Basel's superior form and league position compared to Winterthur
Risk Factors
- Winterthur's high number of goals conceded per game (2.67 season average)
- Basel's susceptibility with an average of 1.80 goals conceded per away game
- Stadion SchĂŒtzenwiese's statistics indicate an average of 3.2 goals per game, posing a high risk of a high-scoring outcome
Overview
Winterthur (12th place, 19 points) host Basel (4th place, 49 points) at Stadion SchĂŒtzenwiese. The Super League match takes place on March 22, 2026, 2:00 PM. Winterthur are fighting against relegation, while Basel aim to consolidate their position in the upper half of the table. The mathematical analysis sees Basel as favorites with a 44% win probability
Form
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Winterthur: Form LLDDW (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses)
Their last result was a 2-1 away win against Luzern
Winterthur's recent form trend is negative
Basel: Form LWWLW (3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses)
Their last result was a 3-1 home win against Servette
Basel's recent form trend is stable
Statistics
Winterthur scored an average of 1.13 goals per game this season and conceded 2.67 goals
Winterthur's goal production is currently stagnating (1.0 goals per game), with a season average of 1.13
Basel scored an average of 1.50 goals and conceded 1.30 goals per game
Basel consistently scores an average of 1.50 goals per game
At home, Winterthur scored 1.12 goals and conceded 1.94 goals
Away, Basel scored 1.53 goals and conceded 1.80 goals
Winterthur has not kept a clean sheet this season, while Basel has 8 clean sheets
Both teams scored in 21 of Winterthur's 30 matches and in 19 of Basel's 30 matches
The mathematical analysis predicts a 64% probability for both teams to score (BTTS Yes) and a 61% probability for over 2.5 goals
The Stadion SchĂŒtzenwiese venue has seen an average of 3.2 goals in the last 5 games, with both teams scoring in 4 out of 5 matches
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Basel recorded 5 wins and 0 draws or losses for Winterthur
Basel dominated direct encounters with a goal difference of 18:2
The last meeting saw Basel win 2-1 on December 7, 2025
Key Players
Key players for Winterthur: Andrin Hunziker (9 goals, 4 assists), Théo Golliard (4 goals, 4 assists), Randy Schneider (2 goals, 4 assists)
Key players for Basel: Dominik Schmid (3 goals, 5 assists), Bénie Traoré (7 goals), Metinho (3 goals)
Not nominated for Basel: Xherdan Shaqiri (10G/10A), LĂ©o Leroy (1G/1A), Keigo Tsunemoto (1G/1A)
Goalkeepers
Stefanos Kapino of Winterthur has not kept a clean sheet in any game this season
Marwin Hitz of Basel has recorded 8 clean sheets in 28 appearances
Influences
Winterthur scores an average of 1.12 goals at home and concedes 1.94 goals
Basel scores an average of 1.53 goals away and concedes 1.80 goals
The Stadion SchĂŒtzenwiese venue has seen an average of 3.2 goals in the last 5 games