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Super League

Young Boys - Lugano

03/22/2026, 03:30 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Young Boys
1.5
Total xG
2.5
Lugano
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
YBLUG

Young Boys

Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
+0.12
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.04
Christian Fassnacht on the bench (15 goals, 7 assists)
Joël Monteiro not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists)

Lugano

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.14
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.6 season average)
-0.14
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.06
Daniel Dos Santos not in squad (3 goals, 10 assists)
Georgios Koutsias on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists)
Mattia Zanotti not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)
23% of goal output missing (only 68% available)
Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.6 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.78
+0.78
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

29%

Away Win

24%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

76%

Away or Draw

54%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Young Boys' Favorite Role: Mathematical analysis gives Young Boys a 46% win probability and 1.48 expected home goals
  • Young Boys' Home Strength: With an average of 2.00 goals per home game and only 1.06 goals conceded, Young Boys are strong offensively and stable defensively at home
  • High-scoring Stadion Wankdorf: Stadion Wankdorf is known for many goals with an average of 3.40 goals per match and 80% Over 2.5
Risk Factors
  • Limited Goal Threat for Lugano: Daniel Dos Santos (3G/10A), Georgios Koutsias (4G/2A), Mattia Zanotti (1G/3A) are missing, only 69% of the usual goal threat is available
  • Lugano's Offensive Weakness: Lugano averages only 3.8 shots on target per game
  • Yellow Card Suspension for Young Boys: Joël Monteiro (4G/3A) is missing due to a yellow card suspension
Overview

Young Boys (6th place, 45 points) host Lugano (3rd place, 50 points) at Stadion Wankdorf (Bern)

Super League match on March 22, 2026, 4:30 PM

A clash between two teams fighting for European spots

Form

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Young Boys' form is LWWLW

They recorded 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 games

The last match was a 2-0 away win against Lausanne Sport

Lugano's form is WLWLD

This corresponds to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches

The last game ended in a 1-1 away draw against St. Gallen

Statistics

Young Boys scored an average of 2.00 goals per game this season and conceded 1.83 goals

At home, these values improve to 2.00 goals scored and only 1.06 goals conceded per home game

Lugano scored an average of 1.57 goals and conceded 1.23 goals this season

Away, Lugano's average is 1.64 goals scored and 1.73 goals conceded per game

At Stadion Wankdorf, the last 5 games saw an average of 3.40 goals per match

Both teams scored in 40% of games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 80% of games

Head-to-Head

There have been a total of 5 head-to-head matches between these teams

Young Boys won 3 games, Lugano won 1 game, and there was 1 draw

Young Boys scored 7 goals in these encounters, Lugano scored 6 goals

The last encounter on December 21, 2025, ended in a 0-3 victory for Lugano

Key Players

For Young Boys, Chris Bedia (15 goals, 4 assists) is the top scorer

Alvyn Sanches (8 goals, 5 assists) and Alan Virginius (4 goals, 6 assists) are other important offensive players

Not nominated: Christian Fassnacht (15G/7A), Joël Monteiro (4G/3A) for Young Boys

Not nominated: Daniel Dos Santos (3G/10A), Georgios Koutsias (4G/2A), Mattia Zanotti (1G/3A) for Lugano

Goalkeepers

Marvin Keller of Young Boys has achieved 7 clean sheets this season

Lugano achieved 4 clean sheets in away games

David von Ballmoos is expected to be in goal for Lugano and has 0 clean sheets this season

Influences

Young Boys showed strong home performance with an average of 2.00 goals scored and 1.06 goals conceded per home game

Stadion Wankdorf is known for high-scoring games with an average of 3.40 goals per match

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 80% of games at Wankdorf

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