Super League
Young Boys - Lugano
03/22/2026, 03:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.5
2.5
1.0
1:1
14%2:1
9%2:0
9%1:2
6%2:2
5%What influences the xG?
Young Boys
Lugano
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
46%
Draw
29%
Away Win
24%
Goals
Over 1.5
73%
Under 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
46%
Under 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
24%
Under 3.5
76%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
76%
Away or Draw
54%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
51%
No
49%
Key Factors
- Young Boys' Favorite Role: Mathematical analysis gives Young Boys a 46% win probability and 1.48 expected home goals
- Young Boys' Home Strength: With an average of 2.00 goals per home game and only 1.06 goals conceded, Young Boys are strong offensively and stable defensively at home
- High-scoring Stadion Wankdorf: Stadion Wankdorf is known for many goals with an average of 3.40 goals per match and 80% Over 2.5
Risk Factors
- Limited Goal Threat for Lugano: Daniel Dos Santos (3G/10A), Georgios Koutsias (4G/2A), Mattia Zanotti (1G/3A) are missing, only 69% of the usual goal threat is available
- Lugano's Offensive Weakness: Lugano averages only 3.8 shots on target per game
- Yellow Card Suspension for Young Boys: Joël Monteiro (4G/3A) is missing due to a yellow card suspension
Overview
Young Boys (6th place, 45 points) host Lugano (3rd place, 50 points) at Stadion Wankdorf (Bern)
Super League match on March 22, 2026, 4:30 PM
A clash between two teams fighting for European spots
Form
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Young Boys' form is LWWLW
They recorded 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 games
The last match was a 2-0 away win against Lausanne Sport
Lugano's form is WLWLD
This corresponds to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches
The last game ended in a 1-1 away draw against St. Gallen
Statistics
Young Boys scored an average of 2.00 goals per game this season and conceded 1.83 goals
At home, these values improve to 2.00 goals scored and only 1.06 goals conceded per home game
Lugano scored an average of 1.57 goals and conceded 1.23 goals this season
Away, Lugano's average is 1.64 goals scored and 1.73 goals conceded per game
At Stadion Wankdorf, the last 5 games saw an average of 3.40 goals per match
Both teams scored in 40% of games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 80% of games
Head-to-Head
There have been a total of 5 head-to-head matches between these teams
Young Boys won 3 games, Lugano won 1 game, and there was 1 draw
Young Boys scored 7 goals in these encounters, Lugano scored 6 goals
The last encounter on December 21, 2025, ended in a 0-3 victory for Lugano
Key Players
For Young Boys, Chris Bedia (15 goals, 4 assists) is the top scorer
Alvyn Sanches (8 goals, 5 assists) and Alan Virginius (4 goals, 6 assists) are other important offensive players
Not nominated: Christian Fassnacht (15G/7A), Joël Monteiro (4G/3A) for Young Boys
Not nominated: Daniel Dos Santos (3G/10A), Georgios Koutsias (4G/2A), Mattia Zanotti (1G/3A) for Lugano
Goalkeepers
Marvin Keller of Young Boys has achieved 7 clean sheets this season
Lugano achieved 4 clean sheets in away games
David von Ballmoos is expected to be in goal for Lugano and has 0 clean sheets this season
Influences
Young Boys showed strong home performance with an average of 2.00 goals scored and 1.06 goals conceded per home game
Stadion Wankdorf is known for high-scoring games with an average of 3.40 goals per match
Over 2.5 goals were scored in 80% of games at Wankdorf