Europa League
Aston Villa - Salzburg
01/29/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.5
2.9
1.4
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
36%
Draw
33%
Away Win
31%
Goals
Over 1.5
86%
Over 2.5
68%
Over 3.5
42%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
69%
Away or Draw
64%
No Draw
67%
Both Score
Yes
65%
No
35%
Key Factors
- League table gap: The match between the 2nd and 28th-placed teams suggests a clear favorite role for Aston Villa
- Fortress vs. Attack: Aston Villa's strong home defense (0.75 goals conceded) meets Salzburg's potent away offense (2.0 goals)
- Identical form: Despite the difference in the standings, both teams enter the game with the exact same form (3W, 1D, 1L), suggesting a close match
Risk Factors
- Offensive dip in form: Both teams have recently scored fewer goals than their season average, which could point to a lower-scoring game
- Potential fatigue: Aston Villa has a shorter recovery period of only 4 days compared to Salzburg's 7 days, which could be a factor
Overview
Aston Villa (2nd place, 18 points) host Salzburg (28th place, 6 points) at Villa Park
The Europa League match will take place on January 29, 2026, 9:00 PM
Due to their significantly better league position, Aston Villa enters the match as the favorite
Form
Aston Villa: DWLWW
From the last 5 matches, the team has 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss
Salzburg: DWLWW
The visitors have an identical form with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Salzburg is offensively stronger with an average of 2.12 goals per game compared to Aston Villa (1.52)
However, Aston Villa's defense is more stable, conceding an average of 1.09 goals, while Salzburg concedes 1.24
Aston Villa's home defense is particularly strong, conceding only 0.75 goals per game on average
Salzburg is very dangerous away from home, scoring an average of 2.0 goals
In 13 of Aston Villa's 23 matches, there were over 2.5 goals, while this was the case in 13 of Salzburg's 17 matches
At Villa Park, an average of 2.4 goals per game have been scored recently
Key Players
Donyell Malen has scored 3 goals for Aston Villa this season
Emiliano Buendía, who is in rising form, has contributed with 1 goal and 1 assist
For Salzburg, Kerim Alajbegovic is in outstanding form, scoring 4 goals in his last 4 appearances
Edmund Baidoo has scored 1 goal in his last 5 matches
Goalkeepers
Aston Villa's goalkeeper, Emiliano Martínez, has kept 7 clean sheets in this season's games
Salzburg's goalkeeper, Alexander Schlager, has managed 4 clean sheets
Influences
At Villa Park, an average of 2.4 goals have been scored in recent games, with both teams scoring in 60% of cases
Aston Villa has a record of 7 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses on natural grass
Salzburg's record on this surface is 5 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses