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Super League

Lugano - Thun

04/04/2026, 04:00 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Lugano
1.0
Total xG
2.7
Thun
1.7
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

10%

0:2

9%

2:1

6%

1:3

5%
What influences the xG?
LUGTHU

Lugano

Attack weakness (0.6x league average)
-1.12
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.19
Declining form (1 vs 1.6 season average)
-0.19
K. Behrens not in squad (11 goals, 1 assists)
25% of goal output missing (only 75% available)

Thun

Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.34
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.02
Valmir Matoshi on the bench (5 goals, 4 assists)
Marco Bürki not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1.8 vs 2.3 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.77
+0.77
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

22%

Draw

27%

Away Win

51%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

49%

Away or Draw

78%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts an away win for Thun with a probability of 51%
  • Thun's current form is more convincing, while Lugano's goal production has recently declined
  • Thun demonstrates a strong away offense with an average of 2.36 goals per game
Risk Factors
  • Lugano's recent goal production is negative, with 1.0 goals compared to the season average of 1.6
  • The venue historically shows many goals and BTTS results, which favors an open game
Overview

Lugano (4th place, 51 points) hosts Thun (1st place, 71 points) at Stadio di Cornaredo

Super League match on April 4, 2026, 4:00 PM

Thun, as league leaders, enter the match as favorites, while Lugano aims to defend its 4th place

Form

Lugano's form in the last five matches is LWLDD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Lugano recently drew twice in a row

Lugano's goal production is currently stagnant at an average of 1.0 goals, while the season average is 1.6 goals

Thun's form in its last five matches is WDWWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Thun consistently scores an average of 2.4 goals per game

Statistics

Lugano averages 1.55 goals scored per game and concedes 1.23 goals

At home, Lugano scores 1.53 goals and concedes 0.95 goals per home game

Thun is strong offensively with an average of 2.32 goals per game and concedes 1.13 goals

Away, Thun scores 2.36 goals and concedes 1.14 goals per away game

An average of 3.4 goals per game were scored at Stadio di Cornaredo

Both teams scored in 5 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 out of 5 games

Head-to-Head

In 2 head-to-head matches, both teams recorded one win each

A total of 2 goals were scored by Lugano and 2 goals by Thun

Lugano won the last match at home 1:0 on November 22, 2025

The recent head-to-head encounters show an even balance of power

Key Players

For Lugano, Daniel Dos Santos (10 assists), Anto Grgic (7 goals), and Renato Steffen (5 goals) are key players

They are part of the probable starting lineup

Thun relies on the goal threat of Elmin Rastoder (12 goals), Leonardo Bertone (10 goals), and Kastriot Imeri (6 goals, 6 assists)

These players are in the probable starting lineup

Goalkeepers

Lugano's goalkeeper Amir Saipi has 7 clean sheets this season

Thun's goalkeeper Niklas Steffen has 6 clean sheets this season

Influences

Stadio di Cornaredo features a grass surface

Lugano shows a solid home defense with an average of 0.95 goals conceded

Historically, many goals are scored at Stadio di Cornaredo (avg. 3.4 goals per game)

In all 5 last games at the stadium, both teams scored

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