🇨🇭

Super League

St. Gallen - Zürich

04/06/2026, 02:30 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
St. Gallen
1.9
Total xG
2.7
Zürich
0.8
Most Likely Scores

2:0

12%

1:1

12%

2:1

10%

3:0

8%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
SGZÜR

St. Gallen

Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.52
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.08
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 10, 8 places gap)
+0.07
Alessandro Vogt on the bench (14 goals, 3 assists)
12% of goal output missing (only 90% available)

Zürich

Attack weakness (0.55x league average)
-0.95
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.13
Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.13
Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 2, 8 places gap)
-0.07
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.77
+0.77
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

62%

Draw

24%

Away Win

14%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

86%

Away or Draw

38%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • St. Gallen is the favorite for a home win with a 62% probability, according to mathematical analysis, with 1.88 expected home goals
  • St. Gallen's home offense (avg 1.88 goals) meets Zürich's weak away defense (avg 2.33 goals conceded)
  • St. Gallen is unbeaten in 5 games, while Zürich recorded 4 losses in their last 5 matches
Risk Factors
  • Zürich's Away Defense: Zürich concedes an average of 2.33 goals per away game
  • Zürich's Offensive Efficiency: Zürich averaged 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • Last Head-to-Head: St. Gallen lost their last home game against Zürich with a score of 1-2
Overview

St. Gallen (2nd place, 56 points) host Zürich (10th place, 34 points) at Kybunpark. Super League match on April 6, 2026, 4:30 PM. The mathematical analysis sees St. Gallen as clear favorites with a 62% home win probability

Form

St. Gallen's form is WDWDD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss). The team achieved 2 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses in their last 5 games, with the last match being a 1-1 draw against Sion. Zürich's form is LLLLW with 1 win, 0 draws, and 4 losses from their last 5 matches, including a 2-1 win against Thun in their last game. St. Gallen's goal production is currently stagnant (1.8 goals), with a season average of 2.1 goals. Zürich's goal production is also stagnant (1.0 goals), with a season average of 1.4 goals

Statistics

St. Gallen averages 1.94 goals scored per game and concedes 1.19 goals per game over the season. Zürich averages 1.42 goals scored and concedes 1.94 goals per match. At home, St. Gallen averages 1.88 goals scored and concedes 1.12 goals. Zürich concedes an average of 2.33 goals per away game. Kybunpark records an average of 2.2 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 60% of matches and 60% seeing over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, St. Gallen won 3 times and Zürich won 2 times. St. Gallen scored a total of 9 goals, Zürich 8 goals. The last encounter on December 6, 2025, ended with a 1-2 victory for Zürich. St. Gallen has been dominant at home in overall direct duels

Key Players

For St. Gallen, Lukas Görtler (6 goals, 8 assists, avg 7.33 rating) with stable form, Carlo Boukhalfa (11 goals, 3 assists, avg 6.95 rating) with stable form, and Aliou Baldé (8 goals, 0 assists, avg 6.83 rating) with declining form are notable. Not nominated for St. Gallen: Alessandro Vogt (14G/3A). For Zürich, Philippe Paulin Keny (12 goals, 2 assists, avg 7.08 rating) with declining form, Ivan Cavaleiro (2 goals, 0 assists, avg 6.94 rating) with stable form, and Damienus Reverson (6 goals, 0 assists, avg 6.71 rating) with stable form stand out

Goalkeepers

St. Gallen's goalkeeper Lawrence Ati Zigi achieved 8 clean sheets this season. Zürich's goalkeeper Silas Huber kept a clean sheet 2 times

Influences

St. Gallen enjoys a home advantage with an average of 1.88 goals scored at home and 1.12 goals conceded at home. Kybunpark is a stadium with an average of 2.2 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 60% of matches and 60% seeing over 2.5 goals. The playing surface is natural grass

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.