Super League
Zürich - Lugano
04/11/2026, 04:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.9
1.6
1:1
13%1:2
9%2:1
7%0:2
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Zürich
Lugano
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
30%
Draw
28%
Away Win
43%
Goals
Over 1.5
79%
Under 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
54%
Under 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
32%
Under 3.5
68%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
57%
Away or Draw
70%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
59%
No
41%
Key Factors
- Pipeline prediction: Lugano is favored with a 42% win probability
- Form advantage: Lugano is in better form with 2 wins and 2 draws in the last 5 games compared to Zürich (1 win, 4 losses)
- Defensive stability: Lugano concedes significantly fewer goals per game on average (1.19) than Zürich (1.94 goals per game)
Risk Factors
- Zürich's offense has averaged only 3.4 shots on target per game in the last 5 matches
- Zürich's goal production has been declining recently (1.2 goals on average vs. 1.41 season average)
- Lugano's goal production has also been declining recently (1.2 goals on average vs. 1.61 season average)
Overview
Zürich (10th place, 34 points) host Lugano (3rd place, 54 points) at Stadion Letzigrund
Super League match on April 11, 2026, 6:00 PM
Lugano is fighting for the top spots in the table, while Zürich is positioned in the lower mid-table
Form
Zürich's current form is LLLWL (1 win, 0 draws, 4 losses)
Lugano shows the form WLDDW (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss)
Zürich's last match was a 1-2 loss against St. Gallen
Lugano won their last match 1-0 against Thun
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Zürich scores an average of 1.41 goals per game and concedes 1.94 goals
Lugano is slightly stronger offensively with 1.53 goals per game and significantly more stable defensively with 1.19 goals conceded
Zürich has seen "both teams scored" in 23 games, Lugano in 21 games
Zürich has 26 games with over 2.5 goals, Lugano has 15 games
At home, Zürich scores an average of 1.42 goals and concedes 1.68 goals
Away, Lugano scores 1.58 goals and concedes 1.67 goals
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, Zürich won 1, Lugano won 3, and 1 ended in a draw
Lugano dominated recent encounters
The goal difference is 5:7 in favor of Lugano
The last direct match on December 17, 2025, ended 0-1 for Lugano
Key Players
For Zürich: Philippe Paulin Keny scored 12 season goals and 3 assists, averaging 0.59 goals per 90 minutes
Ivan Cavaleiro has 3 season goals and 0 assists, with 2 goals in the last 5 games and a stable form trend
Valon Berisha contributed 0 goals and 2 assists, with 2 assists in the last 5 games and a stable form trend
Not nominated for Zürich: Damienus Reverson (6G/0A)
For Lugano: Daniel Dos Santos has 4 season goals and 10 assists, with 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games and a rising form trend
Renato Steffen scored 5 season goals and 3 assists, with 2 goals and 1 assist in the last 5 games and a rising form trend
Anto Grgic has 7 season goals and 5 assists, with 1 goal in the last 5 games and a declining form trend
Not nominated for Lugano: Antonios Papadopoulos (3G/0A)
Goalkeepers
Zürich's goalkeeper, Silas Huber, played 11 season games and recorded 2 clean sheets for his team
Lugano's goalkeeper Amir Saipi played 22 season games and kept 8 clean sheets
Influences
Stadion Letzigrund averaged 3.6 total goals in 5 games
Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 games, and all 5 games ended with over 2.5 goals
Zürich's home goals of 1.42 per game and home goals conceded of 1.68 per game characterize their home record