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Super League

Thun - Basel

04/18/2026, 06:30 PM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Thun
2.6
Total xG
4.2
Basel
1.7
Most Likely Scores

2:1

8%

3:1

7%

2:2

7%

3:2

6%

1:2

5%
What influences the xG?
THUBAS

Thun

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
-0.07
Brighton Labeau on the bench (3 goals, 4 assists)
Mattias KĂ€it on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)

Basel

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.08
Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.02
Andrej Bacanin on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Giacomo Koloto on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.75
+0.75
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Basel with Koba Koindredi: 5.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Thun: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    Thun with Christopher Ibayi: 13 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Basel: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    Thun: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

56%

Draw

20%

Away Win

24%

Goals

Over 1.5

93%

Under 1.5

7%

Over 2.5

79%

Under 2.5

21%

Over 3.5

61%

Under 3.5

39%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

76%

Away or Draw

44%

No Draw

80%

Both Score

Yes

76%

No

24%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a 56% home win probability for Thun and 2.55 expected goals
  • Thun shows a strong home offense with an average of 2.29 goals per home game
  • Basel is in a positive form trend according to advanced stats, currently scoring more frequently (1.8 goals) than their season average (1.5 goals)
Risk Factors
  • Thun's goal production has recently slowed (2.0 goals per game) compared to their season average (2.3 goals per game)
  • The head-to-head record over two games is even, with no clear dominance for either team
  • Basel's average expected goals (1.10) have recently been significantly lower than their season average (1.73), suggesting a potential overperformance
Overview

Thun (1st place, 71 points) hosts Basel at the Stockhorn Arena. The Super League match takes place on April 18, 2026, 8:30 PM. Thun is a top team this season and aims to extend its lead.

Form

Thun's form in their last five league games is DWWLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss).

In these matches, Thun recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. Their last game resulted in a loss.

Basel shows a form of WLWWD.

This means 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last five games. Basel's last result was a draw.

Statistics

Thun averaged 2.25 goals scored per game this season and conceded 1.13 goals per game.

At home, Thun's average is 2.29 goals scored per game and 1.12 goals conceded per game.

Thun kept 6 clean sheets, both teams scored in 23 games, and 25 games ended with over 2.5 goals.

Basel averaged 1.56 goals scored per game and conceded 1.31 goals per game.

Away from home, Basel averages 1.56 goals scored and concedes 1.69 goals per game.

Basel recorded 9 clean sheets, both teams scored in 20 games, and 19 games ended with over 2.5 goals.

The Stockhorn Arena saw an average of 4.0 goals per game in the last 5 matches.

In 4 out of 5 games, both teams scored, and 4 out of 5 games had over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-Head

In the two direct encounters between Thun and Basel, Thun has 1 win and Basel has 1 win, with no draws.

Thun scored 3 goals in these matches, while Basel scored 4 goals.

The last meeting on February 1, 2026, ended in a 2-1 victory for Basel.

The recent head-to-head record is even.

Key Players

For Thun, Elmin Rastoder (12 goals, 5 assists), Leonardo Bertone (10 goals, 2 assists), and Kastriot Imeri (6 goals, 6 assists) are key offensive players.

Elmin Rastoder had 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 5 games with an average rating of 6.70.

Leonardo Bertone contributed 2 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 appearances with an average rating of 7.06.

Kastriot Imeri recorded 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 5 games with an average rating of 6.83.

Not nominated: Brighton Labeau (3G/4A), Mattias KĂ€it (2G/1A).

For Basel, Xherdan Shaqiri (11 goals, 10 assists), Bénie Traoré (9 goals, 2 assists), and Dominik Schmid (3 goals, 5 assists) are crucial.

Xherdan Shaqiri scored 1 goal and 0 assists in his last 5 games with an average rating of 6.91.

Bénie Traoré was involved in his last 5 appearances with 2 goals and 2 assists with an average rating of 7.10.

Dominik Schmid showed 1 goal and 0 assists in his last 5 games with an average rating of 7.09.

Not nominated: Andrej Bacanin (0G/2A), Giacomo Koloto (2G/0A).

Goalkeepers

Thun's goalkeeper Niklas Steffen appeared in 32 season games and achieved 6 clean sheets.

He showed stable form in the last 5 games with an average rating of 6.78.

Basel's goalkeeper Marwin Hitz played 30 season games and kept 9 clean sheets.

His form is rising with an average rating of 7.40 in the last 5 games.

Influences

Thun plays on artificial turf, where they have a record of 7 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in 10 games (27:12 goals).

Basel has 1 win from 1 game on artificial turf with a goal difference of 3:1.

The Stockhorn Arena is characterized by a high goal average of 4.0 goals per game.

In 4 out of 5 games, both teams scored, and in 4 out of 5 games, more than 2.5 goals were scored.

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