Serie A
Genoa - Bologna
01/25/2026, 02:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
2.6
1.5
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
26%
Draw
32%
Away Win
42%
Goals
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
33%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
58%
Away or Draw
74%
No Draw
68%
Both Score
Yes
65%
No
35%
Key Factors
- Bologna's superior attack (1.43 goals/game) meets Genoa's more vulnerable defense (1.38 goals conceded/game), giving the visitors an edge.
- Both teams are weakened by key defensive absences (ĂstigĂĽrd for Genoa; Miranda and LucumĂ for Bologna), which could lead to an open game with goals on both sides.
- Advanced stats show Genoa has a positive recent goal-scoring trend while Bologna's is declining, which could narrow the gap between the teams.
Risk Factors
- Significant defensive absences on both sides make defensive stability unpredictable.
- Genoa's starting goalkeeper Justin Bijlow has no appearances for the club this season according to the stats, which is a major element of uncertainty.
- Bologna's recent form is negative despite their better league position, which could see them underperform against a Genoa side with a positive trend.
Overview
Genoa (16th place, 20 points) hosts Bologna (8th place, 30 points) at the Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris. The Serie A match takes place on January 25, 2026, at 3:00 PM. Bologna is fighting to secure a top-half finish, while Genoa needs crucial points in the relegation battle.
Form
Genoa: LDDWD - In the last five matches, there was 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss. The form is inconsistent, but with a slight tendency towards draws.
Bologna: LDWLD - With 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses, Bologna also shows mixed form. Neither team enters the match with great confidence.
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Offensively, Bologna has the upper hand with an average of 1.43 goals per game, compared to Genoa's 1.05. Defensively, Bologna is also more stable, conceding an average of 1.14 goals, while Genoa concedes 1.38. For Genoa, 13 of 21 games saw both teams score, while for Bologna, it was 11 out of 21.
Head-to-Head
In the last five head-to-head encounters, Genoa has the edge with 2 wins, while Bologna has recorded 1 victory, and 2 matches ended in a draw. The goal difference is 9-6 in favor of Genoa. The last meeting in September 2025 was won by Bologna 2-1.
Key Players
Genoa's Lorenzo Colombo is in rising form with 3 goals in his last 5 appearances and 5 for the season. AarĂłn MartĂn is a key creator with 4 assists. For Bologna, Riccardo Orsolini with 7 seasonal goals and Santiago Castro with 6 are the most dangerous attackers. Jens Odgaard also has a positive form trend.
Goalkeepers
In goal for Genoa is Justin Bijlow, who, according to available data, has not made an appearance this season. The team has kept a total of 4 clean sheets. For Bologna, Lukasz Skorupski starts, having made 10 appearances this season. The team has kept 6 clean sheets in total.
Influences
The Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris is known for an average of 2.4 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 60% of matches. Genoa has a negative goal difference at home (9:13 in 9 games). Bologna presents itself stronger away with a positive record (18:14 in 13 games).