Serie A
Atalanta - Parma
01/25/2026, 02:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.7
2.6
0.9
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
58%
Draw
24%
Away Win
18%
Goals
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
28%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
82%
Away or Draw
42%
No Draw
76%
Both Score
Yes
48%
No
52%
Key Factors
- Atalanta's Attacking Edge: Atalanta's solid home offense (1.27 goals per game) faces one of the league's weakest away offenses (Parma with 0.64 goals per game)
- Clear Form Disparity: Atalanta comes into the game with 3 wins from their last 5 matches, while Parma has only managed one victory in the same period
- Key Absence for Parma: The absence of starting goalkeeper Zion Suzuki is a significant blow to Parma's defense and a major advantage for Atalanta's attack
Risk Factors
- Injury concerns for Atalanta too: The absence of players like K. Sulemana could impact the home team's attacking power
- Unpredictable H2H: Although the overall record favors Atalanta, the last head-to-head match ended in a draw, showing that Parma can be competitive
- Limited data context: The league table data shows 0 games played, meaning the standings should only be used as a rough indicator of team strength
Overview
Atalanta, in 7th place with 32 points, hosts Parma, in 13th place with 23 points, at the Gewiss Stadium
The Serie A match takes place on January 25, 2026, at 3:00 PM
Atalanta enters the match as clear favorites, aiming to stay in touch with the European spots
Form
Atalanta: WWWDL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
In the last five matches, they have 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss
Parma: DLWDD
The team has recorded 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last five games
Atalanta is in significantly better form than the visitors
Statistics
Atalanta scores an average of 1.24 goals per game this season and concedes 0.95
Parma has an average of 0.67 goals scored and 1.05 goals conceded
Atalanta is particularly strong at home, having scored 14 goals and conceded only 9 in 11 matches
Parma shows offensive weaknesses away from home, with only 7 goals in 11 games
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, Atalanta won 3 times, Parma won once, and 1 match ended in a draw
The goal difference is 14:7 in favor of Atalanta
The last meeting on August 30, 2025, ended 1-1
Key Players
Nikola Krstović has scored 5 goals for Atalanta this season and is showing rising form
Gianluca Scamacca is another important attacker with 5 seasonal goals
Charles De Ketelaere has contributed 3 goals and 2 assists, and his form is on the rise
Mateo Pellegrino is Parma's top scorer with 6 goals this season
Adrián Bernabé is a key figure in Parma's midfield, also showing rising form
Goalkeepers
Marco Carnesecchi is in goal for Atalanta and has kept 7 clean sheets this season
For Parma, Edoardo Corvi replaces the injured starting goalkeeper Zion Suzuki
Influences
At Gewiss Stadium, an average of 2.4 goals are scored per game
The rate for both teams to score is 40%
Atalanta has a strong home record on natural grass with 6 wins in 10 games
Parma has only won 3 of their 10 away games on natural grass