Serie A
Roma - AC Milan
01/25/2026, 07:45 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
3.0
1.6
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
34%
Draw
29%
Away Win
37%
Goals
Over 1.5
89%
Over 2.5
68%
Over 3.5
41%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
63%
Away or Draw
66%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
62%
No
38%
Key Factors
- Both teams in top form: Both Roma (4 wins from 5) and the unbeaten AC Milan (3W, 2D) enter the clash on a 2-game winning streak
- Defensive stability vs. offensive power: Roma's defense is extremely strong with only 0.57 goals conceded per game, while Milan's attack impresses with 1.62 goals per game
- Roma with a rising offensive trend: Roma is currently scoring more frequently (2.0 goals/game) than their season average (1.24)
Risk Factors
- Fatigue for Roma: Roma has had only 3 days of rest since their last match, whereas AC Milan had a full week to recover
- Balanced H2H record: The head-to-head record is completely even with two wins each and one draw, suggesting a tight match
Overview
A top Serie A match is coming up, with Roma (4th place, 42 points) hosting AC Milan (2nd place, 46 points)
The match will take place on January 25, 2026, at 8:45 PM at the Stadio Olimpico
It is a direct duel for the top spots in the table, with both teams aiming for crucial points
Form
Roma is in strong form with four wins in their last five matches (WWLWW)
In the last five games, Roma has secured 4 wins and suffered 1 loss
AC Milan is unbeaten in five games and has a form of WDDWW
AC Milan's record from the last five matches is 3 wins and 2 draws
Both teams enter this match on a two-game winning streak
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
AC Milan has the more potent attack, averaging 1.62 goals per game compared to Roma's 1.24
Conversely, Roma's defense is more stable, conceding only 0.57 goals per game, while Milan concedes 0.76
At home, Roma scores an average of 1.3 goals and concedes just 0.5
AC Milan is also strong away from home, scoring an average of 1.55 goals while conceding only 0.64
Head-to-Head
The record of the last five head-to-head encounters is completely balanced
Roma and AC Milan have each won two matches, with one draw
The goal difference is also even at 7:7
AC Milan won the last meeting 1:0
Key Players
Matías Soulé is a key figure in Roma's attack with 6 season goals and 4 assists
Pablo Dybala is showing a rising form trend, with 1 goal and 3 assists in the last five games
Christian Pulisic is an important goalscorer for AC Milan with 8 season goals
Rafael Leão has already scored 7 goals and provided 2 assists this season
Adrien Rabiot is in good form, contributing 2 goals in the last five matches
Goalkeepers
Mile Svilar has been in goal for Roma 21 times this season, with the team keeping 10 clean sheets
Mike Maignan has guarded the goal for AC Milan in 20 matches and has also kept 10 clean sheets
Influences
An average of 3.2 goals per game have been scored at the Stadio Olimpico, based on the last five matches
Roma has a strong home record on natural grass with 7 wins in 10 games
AC Milan is also very successful away on natural grass, winning 6 of 10 matches with only one loss