Serie A
Cagliari - Hellas Verona
01/31/2026, 07:45 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.3
1.1
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
38%
Draw
32%
Away Win
30%
Goals
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
21%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
70%
Away or Draw
62%
No Draw
68%
Both Score
Yes
54%
No
46%
Key Factors
- Strong contrast between home and away performance: Cagliari's solid home record meets Verona's extremely weak away defense (2.0 goals conceded per game)
- Clear difference in form: Cagliari comes into the match with two consecutive wins, while Hellas Verona is winless in their last five games
- Statistical superiority: Cagliari is better both offensively (1.09 vs 0.82 goals/game) and defensively (1.41 vs 1.68 goals conceded/game)
Risk Factors
- Balanced goal expectation: The predicted goals (1.20 for Cagliari, 1.15 for Verona) suggest a closer match than the league table implies
- Tactical stalemate: Both teams prefer a counter-attacking style with low possession and few shots on target, which could lead to a low-chance game
Overview
Cagliari (12th place, 25 points) hosts Hellas Verona (20th place, 14 points) at the Sardegna Arena
This is a Serie A match on January 31, 2026, at 8:45 PM
Cagliari aims to solidify their mid-table position, while Hellas Verona desperately needs points in the relegation battle
Form
Cagliari is showing improving form with two consecutive wins
Form: LDLWW (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)
Hellas Verona, on the other hand, is winless in their last five matches and is in a form crisis
Form: DLLDL (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses)
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Offensively, Cagliari is slightly stronger with an average of 1.09 goals per game compared to Hellas Verona's 0.82
Defensively, Cagliari concedes an average of 1.41 goals, while Verona concedes 1.68
Verona's defense is particularly vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 2.0 goals per game
Cagliari averages 1.1 goals scored and 1.3 conceded at home
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, Cagliari has a slightly positive record
Cagliari won 2 matches, Hellas Verona won 1, with 2 ending in a draw
The goal difference is 6:5 in favor of Cagliari
The last meeting on October 26, 2025, ended 2-2
Key Players
Sebastiano Esposito has scored 3 goals and provided 3 assists this season
Marco Palestra is a key factor in Cagliari's attack with 1 goal and 4 assists
Gift Orban is Hellas Verona's most dangerous attacker with 7 goals this season
Giovane has contributed 3 goals and 4 assists for Verona
Goalkeepers
Cagliari's goalkeeper Elia Caprile has kept 4 clean sheets in 22 appearances this season
Simone Perilli, who is in goal for Hellas Verona, has made 2 appearances this season
Influences
Cagliari has a clear home advantage, with a home record of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses
Hellas Verona's away record is weak, with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses
An average of 2.6 goals are scored per game at the Sardegna Arena, with both teams scoring in 40% of matches
Both teams play on natural grass