Serie A
Lazio - Genoa
01/30/2026, 07:45 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.3
1.1
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
29%
Draw
36%
Away Win
35%
Goals
Over 1.5
82%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
21%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
65%
Away or Draw
71%
No Draw
64%
Both Score
Yes
55%
No
45%
Key Factors
- Form vs. History Conflict: Genoa's strong unbeaten run (DDWDW) clashes with Lazio's complete historical dominance (5 wins in the last 5 H2H with 10-0 goals)
- Clash of Profiles: Lazio's strong defense (0.86 goals conceded, 11 clean sheets) against Genoa's more productive but vulnerable setup (1.14 goals scored, 1.41 conceded)
- Striker Form: Genoa's attack, led by Lorenzo Colombo (3 goals in the last 5 games), appears to be in better shape than Lazio's offense, which has recently averaged only 0.75 goals per game
Risk Factors
- Lazio's Inconsistent Offense: Lazio's inability to score is a major risk; they have failed to score in 11 of 22 season games, and their recent goal average is only 0.75 per game
- Genoa's Poor H2H Record: Genoa's psychological block against Lazio could be a factor, having failed to score a single goal in the last five meetings
Overview
Lazio, in 9th place with 29 points, hosts Genoa, who are 16th with 23 points, at the Stadio Olimpico
The Serie A match takes place on January 30, 2026, at 8:45 PM
This is a clash between a mid-table team and an opponent trying to stay clear of the relegation zone
Form
Genoa is in significantly better form, being unbeaten in their last five matches
Genoa form: DDWDW - 2 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses
Lazio shows inconsistent form with only one win in their last five games
Lazio form: LDWLD - 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Offensively, Genoa averages 1.14 goals per game, while Lazio averages 0.95
Defensively, Lazio is more stable with only 0.86 goals conceded per game, compared to Genoa's 1.41
Lazio has kept a clean sheet in 11 of 22 season matches but has also failed to score in 11 matches
Genoa's games have seen over 2.5 goals in 13 of 22 matches, compared to just 5 for Lazio
Head-to-Head
Lazio has clearly dominated recent head-to-head encounters
In the last 5 meetings, Lazio has won all 5 matches
The goal difference is a clear 10-0 in favor of Lazio
Genoa has not scored a single goal in these five games
Key Players
For Lazio, Mattia Zaccagni and Matteo Cancellieri are the top scorers with 3 season goals each
Danilo Cataldi has contributed with 2 goals and 2 assists
For Genoa, Lorenzo Colombo is the top scorer with 5 goals and 1 assist
Defender Leo ĂstigĂ„rd has scored 4 goals, while Ruslan Malinovskyi has 3 goals and 3 assists
Goalkeepers
Lazio's goalkeeper Ivan Provedel has kept 11 clean sheets in 22 season matches
Genoa, with Justin Bijlow in goal, has kept 4 clean sheets in 22 matches
Statistically, Provedel has a significantly higher clean sheet rate
Influences
At the Stadio Olimpico, an average of 2.8 goals are scored per game
In 40% of matches at this venue, both teams score, and in 40% of cases, there are more than 2.5 goals
Lazio's record on natural grass is 3 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses
Genoa's record on this surface is 3 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses