Serie A
Napoli - Fiorentina
01/31/2026, 05:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
3.1
1.7
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
30%
Draw
28%
Away Win
42%
Goals
Over 1.5
88%
Over 2.5
71%
Over 3.5
48%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
58%
Away or Draw
70%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
72%
No
28%
Key Factors
- Defensive advantage for Napoli: The strong home defense (0.67 goals conceded per game) meets Fiorentina's weak away defense (2.12 goals conceded)
- Contradictory signals: While the league table and head-to-head favor Napoli, the goal prediction and Fiorentina's positive form trend suggest a potential upset
- Historical dominance: Napoli has won 3 of the last 5 direct encounters, giving them a psychological edge heading into the match
Risk Factors
- Long injury list for Napoli: Despite compensated goal production, the high number of absences, including key players like De Bruyne and Anguissa, poses a significant risk
- Potential fatigue for Napoli: With only three days since their last match, the short recovery time could be a disadvantage for the home team
Overview
Napoli (3rd place, 43 points) hosts Fiorentina (18th place, 17 points) at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. The Serie A match takes place on January 31, 2026, at 6:00 PM. Napoli aims to stay close to the top of the table, while Fiorentina desperately needs points in their relegation battle.
Form
Napoli: DWDLL - 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses in the last 5 matches
Fiorentina: DDWLL - 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses in the last 5 matches
Both teams have an identical form over their last five games
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Napoli is stronger offensively with a season average of 1.41 goals per game compared to Fiorentina's 1.09
Defensively, Napoli is significantly more stable, conceding an average of only 0.91 goals, while Fiorentina is at 1.55 goals per game
Fiorentina's defense is particularly vulnerable away from home, conceding an average of 2.12 goals per game
In 10 of Napoli's 22 matches, there were over 2.5 goals, while for Fiorentina, it was 13 of 22 matches
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, Napoli has had the upper hand
Napoli won 3 matches, Fiorentina 1, and 1 match ended in a draw
The total goal difference is 11:7 in favor of Napoli
The last meeting ended in a 3-1 victory for Napoli
Key Players
For Napoli, Scott McTominay is a key player in midfield with 5 season goals and 3 assists
Rasmus Højlund is the team's top scorer with 6 goals, although his form trend has been declining recently
For Fiorentina, Rolando Mandragora is the most prolific player with 6 season goals
Albert Gudmundsson has contributed 4 goals and 3 assists and is showing a rising form trend
Goalkeepers
Alex Meret starts for Napoli. The team has kept a total of 9 clean sheets this season
David de Gea is in goal for Fiorentina. The team has achieved 3 clean sheets this season
Influences
An average of 2.6 goals are scored per game at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona
In 60% of the matches at this venue, both teams have scored, and there have been over 2.5 goals
Napoli's record on natural grass this season is balanced with 3 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses
Fiorentina has a record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses on this surface