Serie A
AC Milan - Como
02/18/2026, 07:45 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
3.0
1.6
1:1
13%1:2
9%2:1
8%0:2
7%2:2
6%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
30%
Draw
27%
Away Win
43%
Goals
Over 1.5
81%
Under 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
57%
Under 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
34%
Under 3.5
66%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
57%
Away or Draw
70%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
61%
No
39%
Key Factors
- Crucial Absences for AC Milan: The home side is significantly weakened by the suspension of key midfielder Adrien Rabiot (4 goals, 4 assists) and the injury to attacker C. Pulisic (8 goals, 2 assists).
- Como's Tactical Superiority: Como demonstrates a more dominant tactical approach with 63% average possession and significantly more shots on target per game (6.4 vs. Milan's 4.2), indicating stronger offensive pressure.
- Strong Model Prediction for Away Win: Despite being the visiting team and lower in the table, the mathematical model gives Como a significant 43% chance of winning, compared to just 30% for AC Milan.
Risk Factors
- AC Milan's unbeaten form: AC Milan is undefeated in their last five matches (4 wins, 1 draw) and will be confident playing at home.
- Head-to-head dominance: AC Milan has won all of the last three direct encounters against Como, scoring 7 goals to 3.
- Potential fatigue for Como: Como has had only four days of recovery since their last match, which could affect their performance level.
Overview
Top match in Serie A: AC Milan (2nd place, 53 points) hosts Como (7th place, 41 points) at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza. The match takes place on February 18, 2026, at 8:45 PM. Milan is fighting for the top of the table, while Como is aiming for a spot in European competition.
Form
AC Milan is in excellent form and unbeaten in their last five matches (Form: WWDWW), with 4 wins and 1 draw. They have won their last two games. Como's form is also good but took a hit in their last match (Form: WWDDL). They have recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last five games.
Statistics
Both teams are extremely strong defensively, having conceded an average of just 0.75 goals per game this season. Offensively, Milan is slightly more dangerous with 1.67 goals per game compared to Como's 1.58. At home, Milan scores an average of 1.7 goals, while Como averages 1.55 goals away. Como's defense is particularly stable on the road, conceding only 0.82 goals per away game.
Head-to-Head
In the head-to-head record, AC Milan has the clear upper hand. Milan won each of the last 3 encounters. The overall goal difference is 7:3 in favor of AC Milan. The last meeting on January 15, 2026, ended in a 3-1 victory for Milan.
Key Players
For AC Milan, Adrien Rabiot is a key player with 4 goals and 4 assists and is in rising form. Rafael Leão is the top scorer with 7 seasonal goals. For Como, Nico Paz is the pivotal player with 8 goals and 6 assists, although his form has slightly declined recently. Martin Baturina is showing strong rising form with 2 goals and 1 assist in recent matches.
Goalkeepers
The duel between the goalkeepers is on an equal footing. AC Milan's Mike Maignan has kept 11 clean sheets in 23 appearances. His counterpart, Como's Jean Butez, has managed 12 clean sheets in 24 matches.
Influences
The Stadio Giuseppe Meazza has recently been the scene of high-scoring games, with an average of 4.2 goals in the last five matches. AC Milan has a strong home advantage, scoring an average of 1.7 goals per home game. However, Como is very strong defensively away from home, conceding only 0.82 goals per game on their travels.