Serie A
Roma - Cagliari
02/09/2026, 07:45 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.3
0.9
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
68%
Draw
21%
Away Win
11%
Goals
Over 1.5
83%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
28%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
89%
Away or Draw
32%
No Draw
79%
Both Score
Yes
42%
No
58%
Key Factors
- Quality gap: Roma (5th) host Cagliari (12th) with a 15-point advantage in the table
- Home strength meets away weakness: Roma concede just 0.5 goals at home, Cagliari 1.64 away
- Injury concerns for Roma: Missing Dybala and Ferguson means 41% of goal production is absent
Risk Factors
- Cagliari's current 3-game winning streak could provide confidence boost
- Roma's attack weakened by absence of key players like Dybala and Ferguson
Overview
Roma (5th place, 43 points) host Cagliari (12th place, 28 points) at the Stadio Olimpico
Serie A match on February 9, 2026, 8:45 PM
The 15-point gap clearly establishes Roma as favorites for this encounter
Form
Roma: WWDDL - 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss
Cagliari: DLWWW - 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss
Cagliari are on a 3-game winning streak, while Roma drew their last match
The visitors show better current momentum
Statistics
Roma score 1.17 goals per game, Cagliari 1.22 goals
Defensively Roma are more stable with 0.61 goals conceded vs Cagliari's 1.35
At home Roma average 1.17 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded
Cagliari away struggle defensively: 1.64 goals conceded per game
Both teams scored in 6 of 23 Roma games, in 12 of 23 Cagliari games
Head-to-Head
5 direct encounters in the analysis
Roma lead the head-to-head with 3 wins to 1 loss, one draw
Goal ratio 9:2 in favor of the Romans
Last meeting saw Cagliari surprisingly win 1:0
Historically Roma dominate this fixture significantly
Key Players
Matías Soulé with 6 goals and 4 assists for Roma
Lorenzo Pellegrini with 3 season goals
Niccolò Pisilli in excellent form: 2 goals in last 5 games
Sebastiano Esposito leads Cagliari's attack with 3 goals and 4 assists
Semih Kılıçsoy with 4 goals and currently 2 strikes in last 5 matches
Luca Mazzitelli in top form with 2 goals in last 5 games
Goalkeepers
Mile Svilar kept 10 clean sheets in 23 games
Elia Caprile of Cagliari managed 5 clean sheets in 23 appearances
The Roma keeper shows significantly more stable performances this season
Influences
The Stadio Olimpico hosts high-scoring games with 3.4 goals per match on average
60% of recent games saw both teams score and over 2.5 goals
Roma's home strength with just 0.5 goals conceded per home game is a decisive factor
Grass surface conditions favor neither team