Serie A
Como - Fiorentina
02/14/2026, 02:00 PM
Expected Goals
2.5
3.3
0.8
2:0
11%2:1
9%3:0
9%1:1
8%3:1
8%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
72%
Draw
18%
Away Win
10%
Goals
Over 1.5
85%
Under 1.5
15%
Over 2.5
64%
Under 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
42%
Under 3.5
58%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
90%
Away or Draw
28%
No Draw
82%
Both Score
Yes
53%
No
47%
Key Factors
- Massive home vs. away contrast: Como's defensive fortress at home (0.58 goals conceded/game) meets Fiorentina's extremely weak away defense (2.11 goals conceded/game)
- Stark form discrepancy: Como is unbeaten in five games and full of confidence, while Fiorentina is deep in crisis and fighting relegation
- Statistical superiority and model prediction: Como is superior in all areas, supported by a 73% home win probability and an expected 2.48 goals
Risk Factors
- Squad weakening for Fiorentina: Due to the absence of key player Albert Gudmundsson, only 67% of the nominal goal threat is available, further weakening the attack
- Potential fatigue for Como: Como has had only four days of rest since their last match, while Fiorentina had seven days to recover
Overview
Como, in 6th place in the table with 41 points, hosts Fiorentina, who are in a relegation battle in 18th place with 18 points
The Serie A match takes place on February 14, 2026, at 3:00 PM at the Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia
The signs point to a clear favorite role for the home team, which is fighting for European spots
Form
Como is in excellent form and unbeaten in their last five matches (WWWDD)
They have secured 3 wins and 2 draws
Fiorentina, on the other hand, is in a crisis with only one win from their last five games (WLLLD)
The visitors have managed just 1 win, 1 draw, and suffered 3 losses
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Como has one of the best defenses in the league, conceding only 0.7 goals per game, and even just 0.58 at home
Offensively, they score an average of 1.61 goals per game
Fiorentina is very vulnerable defensively, especially away, where they concede an average of 2.11 goals
Their own attack scores an average of 1.13 goals per game
Head-to-Head
In the last four head-to-head encounters, Como has clearly dominated with 3 wins to just one for Fiorentina
The goal difference is 7:4 in favor of Como
Como also won the most recent meeting on January 27, 2026, with a 3:1 scoreline
Key Players
For Como, Nico Paz with 8 goals and 6 assists, and striker Anastasios Douvikas with 8 seasonal goals are crucial players
Martin Baturina also significantly contributes to their success with 4 goals and 3 assists
For Fiorentina, Moise Kean and Rolando Mandragora are the most dangerous players with 6 goals each
Manor Solomon has already scored 2 goals in just 7 appearances
Goalkeepers
A clear advantage for Como is found between the posts
Jean Butez has kept an impressive 12 clean sheets in 23 matches
Fiorentina's David de Gea has managed only 3 clean sheets in 24 appearances
Influences
Como enjoys a strong home advantage, having scored 20 goals and conceded only 7 at the Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia
Fiorentina is extremely weak away from home, having conceded 19 goals in just 9 matches
Recent games at this stadium have averaged 2.6 goals per game