Serie A
Lazio - Atalanta
02/14/2026, 05:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.0
3.0
2.0
1:1
11%0:2
10%1:2
10%0:3
7%1:3
7%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
17%
Draw
24%
Away Win
59%
Goals
Over 1.5
81%
Under 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
57%
Under 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
35%
Under 3.5
65%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
41%
Away or Draw
83%
No Draw
76%
Both Score
Yes
56%
No
44%
Key Factors
- Atalanta's superior form and offensive statistics, supported by a calculated win probability of 59%, position them as the favorites
- Both teams are severely hampered by absences, with Lazio having only 35% and Atalanta only 44% of their season's goal production available, which could impact the match
- A classic matchup unfolds as Lazio's strong home defense (0.82 goals conceded per game) faces Atalanta's potent away attack (1.33 goals scored per game)
Risk Factors
- The numerous absences on both sides, especially in attack, make the match outcome unpredictable
- Lazio has had only three days of rest since their last match, which could lead to potential fatigue, whereas Atalanta had five days to recover
- The historically balanced head-to-head record suggests that Lazio could secure a result despite Atalanta's better form
Overview
Lazio, in 8th place in the table with 33 points, hosts Atalanta, who are in 7th place with 39 points, at the Stadio Olimpico
The Serie A match takes place on February 14, 2026, at 6:00 PM
This is a direct duel between two closely ranked teams in the fight for European spots
Form
Lazio's form across all competitions is mixed: LDWDD (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss in the last 5 games)
Atalanta shows stronger form: WLDWW (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss in the last 5 games)
In the league, Lazio's form is LWLLW, while Atalanta's is DDWWD
Atalanta enters the match with two consecutive wins, whereas Lazio is winless in their last two games
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Offensively, Atalanta has a slight advantage, averaging 1.33 goals per game compared to Lazio's 1.08
Defensively, both teams are strong; Atalanta concedes an average of 0.88 goals per game, while Lazio concedes 0.96
Lazio is particularly strong defensively at home, allowing only 0.82 goals on average
Atalanta is dangerous away from home (1.33 goals per game) but also more vulnerable to conceding (1.22 per game)
Both teams scored in 12 of Atalanta's 24 matches, while this was the case in only 6 of Lazio's games
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 direct encounters, Lazio has a slight edge with 2 wins to Atalanta's 1, with 2 matches ending in a draw
The goal difference is perfectly balanced at 6-6, indicating very close contests
The last meeting ended in a goalless 0-0 draw
Overall, the record shows a very balanced history between the two teams
Key Players
For Lazio, midfielder Danilo Cataldi is a key player with 3 season goals and 3 assists
Gustav Isaksen has also contributed with 3 goals and 1 assist
For Atalanta, Nikola Krstović is the most dangerous available offensive player with 7 goals and 4 assists
Giacomo Raspadori has already scored 1 goal and provided 1 assist in his few appearances
Goalkeepers
Lazio's goalkeeper Ivan Provedel has kept 11 clean sheets in 24 matches
Atalanta's Marco Carnesecchi has kept 9 clean sheets in 24 games
Both goalkeepers have shown strong performances throughout the season and are among the best in the league
Influences
Lazio benefits from a strong home advantage, especially in defense, where they concede an average of just 0.82 goals per game at the Stadio Olimpico
The last five matches at this stadium have averaged 2.8 goals per game
The pitch at the Stadio Olimpico is natural grass