Serie A
Napoli - Roma
02/15/2026, 07:45 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
2.5
1.4
1:1
14%1:2
9%0:2
8%2:1
7%2:0
5%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
29%
Draw
30%
Away Win
42%
Goals
Over 1.5
74%
Under 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
46%
Under 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
25%
Under 3.5
75%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
58%
Away or Draw
71%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
53%
No
47%
Key Factors
- Defensive duel: Roma's outstanding defense (0.58 goals conceded/game) meets Napoli's potent attack (1.5 goals/game)
- Battle for the top: A crucial match in the race for Champions League spots, with only three points separating the two teams
- Slight favorites status for the visitors: The prediction model gives Roma a slight advantage with a 42% win probability compared to Napoli's 29%
Risk Factors
- Significant offensive absences on both sides: Napoli is missing players involved in 44% of their season's goals, while for Roma, it's 45%
- Napoli's inconsistent form: With two losses and a draw in their last five matches, Napoli shows a less stable performance than Roma
Overview
Top match in Serie A: Napoli (3rd place, 49 points) hosts Roma (5th place, 46 points) at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona
The match takes place on February 15, 2026, at 8:45 PM
It's a direct duel for the Champions League spots, with only three points separating the two teams
Form
Napoli comes in with mixed form, having two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five games (Form: L-L-W-W-D)
Roma has been slightly more stable in their last five matches, recording two wins, two draws, and one loss (Form: W-D-D-L-W)
Both teams enter the match with different results from the last matchday: Napoli with a draw, Roma with a win
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Napoli scores an average of 1.5 goals per game this season, while Roma averages 1.21 goals
Roma's strength lies in their defense, which is one of the best in the league with only 0.58 goals conceded per game, compared to Napoli's 0.96
At home, Napoli is defensively strong, conceding only 0.69 goals on average
Roma is also stable away from home, allowing just 0.73 goals per game
Head-to-Head
In the last five head-to-head encounters, Napoli has a slight edge with two wins, while Roma won once, and two matches ended in a draw
The goal difference is balanced at 5:5 goals
The last meeting was won by Napoli with a 1-0 scoreline
Key Players
For Napoli, Rasmus Højlund (8 goals, 2 assists) and Scott McTominay (6 goals, 3 assists) stand out as goal threats
Antonio Vergara has come to the forefront in the last 5 games with 3 goals and 1 assist
For Roma, Matías Soulé (6 goals, 4 assists) and Donyell Malen (3 goals in 4 games) are key offensive players
Paulo Dybala also contributes significantly to the attack with 2 goals and 3 assists
Goalkeepers
In goal for Napoli is Alex Meret; his team has kept 9 clean sheets this season
For Roma, Mile Svilar is the goalkeeper; his team has already kept a clean sheet 11 times
Influences
Napoli is very strong in their own stadium, scoring an average of 1.46 goals while conceding only 0.69
Matches at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona have recently been rather high-scoring, with an average of 2.2 goals per game and both teams scoring in 3 of the last 5 matches