Serie A
Torino - Bologna
02/15/2026, 05:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.6
1.5
1:1
14%1:2
9%0:2
8%2:1
7%2:2
5%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
28%
Draw
29%
Away Win
43%
Goals
Over 1.5
75%
Under 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
49%
Under 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
27%
Under 3.5
73%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
57%
Away or Draw
72%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
54%
No
46%
Key Factors
- Historical dominance: Bologna is unbeaten in the last five encounters against Torino (3 wins, 2 draws)
- Statistical advantage for the visitors: The mathematical analysis favors Bologna with a 43% win probability compared to Torino's 28%
- Away strength vs. home weakness: Bologna is defensively more stable away (1.13 goals conceded) than Torino is at home (1.67 goals conceded)
Risk Factors
- Weakened Bologna attack: The visitors have only 63% of their seasonal goal threat available due to absences
- Poor form of both teams: Both sides have won only one of their last five matches, making the game unpredictable
- Low goal expectancy: The model predicts only a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals, suggesting a tight game
Overview
Torino (13th place, 27 points) host Bologna (11th place, 30 points) at the Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino
Serie A match on February 15, 2026, 6:00 PM
A clash between two mid-table neighbors, with the visitors slightly favored with a 43% probability according to mathematical analysis
Form
Both teams are in poor form
Torino's form in the last five games is LLWLD (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses)
Bologna's form is identical with LWLLD (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses)
Both teams have won only one of their last five competitive matches
Statistics
Statistically, Bologna has slight advantages
They score an average of 1.33 goals per game this season, while Torino scores 1.0
Defensively, Bologna is more stable, conceding 1.29 goals per game compared to Torino's 1.75
Torino is particularly vulnerable at home, conceding an average of 1.67 goals per game
Head-to-Head
Bologna has clearly dominated recent head-to-head encounters
In the last 5 meetings, there were 3 wins for Bologna and 2 draws, with Torino remaining winless
The goal difference is 7-2 in favor of Bologna
The last encounter ended in a 0-0 draw
Key Players
For Torino, Nikola Vlašić with 5 goals and 3 assists, and striker Ché Adams with 4 goals are key players
Giovanni Simeone has also contributed 5 goals this season
For Bologna, Riccardo Orsolini with 7 goals and Santiago Castro with 6 goals are the most dangerous players in attack
Goalkeepers
In goal for Torino is Alberto Paleari
His team has kept 9 clean sheets this season
Starting for Bologna is Federico Ravaglia
Bologna has managed 6 clean sheets this season
Influences
The Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino has not proven to be a fortress for Torino recently
An average of only 2.0 goals were scored in the last five home games
Bologna presents itself as solid away, scoring an average of 1.33 goals and conceding only 1.13 per game