Serie A
Pisa - AC Milan
02/13/2026, 07:45 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
3.5
2.4
1:2
10%0:2
9%1:1
9%1:3
8%0:3
7%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
14%
Draw
20%
Away Win
67%
Goals
Over 1.5
87%
Under 1.5
13%
Over 2.5
68%
Under 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
46%
Under 3.5
54%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
33%
Away or Draw
86%
No Draw
80%
Both Score
Yes
61%
No
39%
Key Factors
- Class gap in the table: Second-placed AC Milan faces second-to-last Pisa, indicating a clear disparity in quality and form
- Defensive vulnerability meets attacking power: Pisa's weak defense, conceding an average of 3.5 goals at home, is up against Milan's potent attack
- Home weakness versus away strength: Pisa struggles massively at home, while Milan is one of the best away teams in the league
Risk Factors
- Potential complacency: Given the vast difference in quality, AC Milan might underestimate their opponent
- Historical result: The only previous encounter ended in a draw, which could give Pisa some hope
Overview
Pisa (19th place, 15 points) hosts AC Milan (2nd place, 50 points) at the Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani
Serie A match on February 13, 2026, 8:45 PM
A clash of extremes between a relegation candidate and a title contender
The mathematical analysis clearly favors AC Milan with a 67% probability of winning
Form
Pisa form (all competitions): DDLLD
The home team is winless in their last 5 games, with 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses
Their league form is also poor: DLLLD
AC Milan form (all competitions): DWWDW
AC Milan is unbeaten in their last 5 matches, recording 3 wins and 2 draws
Their league form is extremely strong with LWWWW
The form curves indicate a clear advantage for the visitors
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
AC Milan has a significantly stronger attack, averaging 1.65 goals per game compared to Pisa's 0.79
There is also a class difference in defense: Milan concedes only 0.74 goals per game, while Pisa concedes 1.67
Pisa's home weakness is glaring: in 4 home games, they scored only 3 goals but conceded 14 (avg 3.5 per game)
In contrast, Milan is very stable away from home, conceding an average of just 0.62 goals
Head-to-Head
The only previous head-to-head match between these two teams ended in a draw
The game finished with a 2-2 scoreline
The goal difference is also balanced at 2-2
Key Players
Stefano Moreo is Pisa's top scorer with 5 goals this season
Matteo Tramoni has contributed 2 goals and 2 assists
For AC Milan, Christopher Nkunku is a constant threat with 5 goals
Adrien Rabiot is in top form, having already scored 4 goals and provided 4 assists this season
Goalkeepers
Pisa's goalkeeper is Nícolas
The team has kept 5 clean sheets this season
Mike Maignan is the goalkeeper for AC Milan
His team has already managed to keep 11 clean sheets
Influences
Pisa's home record is extremely poor with only 3 goals scored and 14 conceded in 4 matches
AC Milan is very successful on the road, having scored 21 goals and conceded only 8 in 13 games
Statistics from the last 5 games at this stadium show an average of 2.4 goals per match