Serie A
Cagliari - Lecce
02/16/2026, 07:45 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.0
0.9
1:1
15%0:0
15%1:0
14%0:1
10%2:0
9%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
41%
Draw
33%
Away Win
25%
Goals
Over 1.5
62%
Under 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
33%
Under 2.5
67%
Over 3.5
15%
Under 3.5
85%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
75%
Away or Draw
59%
No Draw
67%
Both Score
Yes
42%
No
58%
Key Factors
- Lecce's offensive struggles: With only 0.6 goals per away game, Lecce faces Cagliari's solid home defense (1.0 goals conceded per game)
- Strong home advantage for Cagliari: The team is significantly more stable defensively at home and earns most of its points there
- Better current form: Cagliari won 3 of the last 5 games, while Lecce only managed one victory in the same period
Risk Factors
- Weakened attack for Cagliari: Due to absences, only 64% of the team's total season goal threat is available
- Lecce also weakened: With Lameck Banda and Medon Berisha missing, key offensive players are out, leaving only 60% of their attacking power available
- Low goal expectation: The mathematical model predicts a low-scoring game (1.18 to 0.86 expected goals), which increases the likelihood of a draw or a narrow victory
Overview
Cagliari (13th place, 28 points) host Lecce (17th place, 21 points) at the Sardegna Arena
Serie A match on February 16, 2026, 8:45 PM
An important duel in the bottom third of the table, with both teams fighting for crucial points against relegation
Form
Cagliari form: LWWWL (W=Win, D=Draw, L=Loss)
The team has won 3 of its last 5 matches
The last game was a 0-2 loss against Roma
Lecce form: LLDLW
Lecce has managed to win only 1 of its last 5 matches
The recent 2-1 victory over Udinese ended a long winless streak
Statistics
Cagliari scores an average of 1.17 goals per game, while Lecce only manages 0.63
At home, Cagliari is defensively stable, conceding an average of just 1.0 goal per game
Lecce has failed to score in 13 of 24 season matches
The visitors are more vulnerable away, conceding an average of 1.5 goals
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, there have been 2 wins for Cagliari, 1 win for Lecce, and 2 draws
The goal difference favors Cagliari at 8:5
The last encounter was won by Cagliari 2-1
Key Players
Sebastiano Esposito (3 season goals, 4 assists)
Marco Palestra (1 season goal, 4 assists)
Adam Obert (2 season assists, solid defender)
Lassana Coulibaly (2 season goals)
Tiago Gabriel (1 season goal, a key pillar in defense)
Wladimiro Falcone (7 clean sheets this season)
Goalkeepers
Cagliari's Elia Caprile has kept 5 clean sheets this season, 4 of which were at home
Lecce's Wladimiro Falcone has 7 clean sheets this season, 3 of them away
Influences
Cagliari shows clear home strength, conceding only 1.0 goal per game at the Sardegna Arena
Recent matches at this stadium have been rather low-scoring, with an average of 2.2 goals per game
Both teams scored in only one of Cagliari's last five home games