Serie A
AC Milan - Parma
02/22/2026, 05:00 PM
Expected Goals
2.1
2.9
0.8
2:0
12%1:1
11%2:1
10%3:0
8%3:1
7%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
65%
Draw
22%
Away Win
12%
Goals
Over 1.5
80%
Under 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
55%
Under 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
33%
Under 3.5
67%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
88%
Away or Draw
35%
No Draw
78%
Both Score
Yes
50%
No
50%
Key Factors
- League table gap: Second-placed AC Milan has a significant advantage in quality and points (54 to 29) over 13th-placed Parma
- Strong attack vs. weak offense: Milan scores consistently (1.64 per game), while Parma failed to score in almost half of their matches (12 out of 25)
- Solid form and home advantage: Milan is unbeaten in 5 games and particularly strong at home, supported by a 65% mathematical win probability
Risk Factors
- Historical encounters: Parma has scored in each of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Milan, suggesting a potential threat to the Milan defense
- Potential fatigue: AC Milan has had only 4 days to recover since their last match, which could lead to exhaustion
Overview
AC Milan (2nd place, 54 points) hosts Parma (13th place, 29 points) at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
Serie A match on February 22, 2026, 6:00 PM
The home team enters the match as clear favorites, looking to solidify their position at the top of the table
Form
AC Milan is unbeaten in their last 5 matches
Form: W-D-W-W-D (3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses)
Parma has won their last two matches but showed mixed form before that
Form: D-L-L-W-W (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
AC Milan has a strong offense, averaging 1.64 goals scored per game
Defensively, Milan is also solid, conceding only 0.76 goals per game
Parma struggles in attack, scoring an average of just 0.72 goals and failing to score in 12 of their 25 matches
Parma's defense is more vulnerable than Milan's, with 1.24 goals conceded per game
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, AC Milan has a slightly positive record
AC Milan won 2 matches, Parma won 1, and 2 games ended in a draw
The goal difference is 11:9 in favor of AC Milan
The last meeting ended in a 2-2 draw
Key Players
For AC Milan, Christian Pulisic (8 goals, 2 assists) and Rafael Leão (8 goals, 2 assists) are the top scorers, supported by Adrien Rabiot (4 goals, 4 assists) in midfield
For Parma, Mateo Pellegrino is the most dangerous attacker with 7 goals and 1 assist
Adrián Bernabé has contributed 3 goals and 1 assist
Goalkeepers
Mike Maignan in goal for AC Milan has been involved in 11 clean sheets this season
Edoardo Corvi, Parma's goalkeeper, has been part of a team that kept a total of 8 clean sheets
Influences
AC Milan is very strong at home, scoring an average of 1.64 goals while conceding only 0.91 per home game
Parma is weaker away, scoring an average of 0.73 goals and conceding 1.18
The Stadio Giuseppe Meazza has seen a lot of goals recently, with an average of 4.4 goals in the last 5 matches