Serie A
Cagliari - Lazio
02/21/2026, 07:45 PM
Expected Goals
0.9
2.1
1.2
1:1
15%0:0
14%0:1
13%1:0
9%0:2
9%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
27%
Draw
33%
Away Win
40%
Goals
Over 1.5
64%
Under 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
36%
Under 2.5
64%
Over 3.5
17%
Under 3.5
83%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
60%
Away or Draw
73%
No Draw
67%
Both Score
Yes
44%
No
56%
Key Factors
- Lazio's offense is significantly weakened by absences, with only 46% of their seasonal goal threat available, as Taty Castellanos is missing
- The historical comparison clearly favors Lazio, who have won all of the last five head-to-head matches against Cagliari
- Lazio's defense is one of their greatest strengths this season, supported by goalkeeper Ivan Provedel, who has already kept 11 clean sheets
Risk Factors
- Cagliari's offense is also weakened: due to the absence of Gianluca Gaetano, only 57% of their goal threat is available
- Cagliari's form is on a downward trend; after three wins, they have suffered two consecutive losses without scoring a single goal
Overview
Cagliari (13th place, 28 points) hosts Lazio (10th place, 33 points) at the Sardegna Arena
The Serie A match takes place on February 21, 2026, 8:45 PM
It's a mid-table clash where the visitors are slight favorites according to the mathematical analysis, with a 40% win probability
Form
Cagliari's form (all competitions): WWWLL
The team celebrated 3 wins and suffered 2 losses in their last five matches, with the last two games ending in defeat
Lazio's form (all competitions): DWDDL
The last five matches resulted in 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss, indicating an inconsistent phase
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Offensively, both teams are similarly positioned this season, with Cagliari scoring an average of 1.12 goals per game, and Lazio 1.04
Defensively, Lazio is significantly more stable with only 1.0 goal conceded per game, compared to Cagliari's 1.4
Lazio has kept 11 clean sheets this season, while Cagliari has only managed 5
Head-to-Head
Lazio has clearly dominated the head-to-head record in recent history
In the last 5 encounters, all 5 victories went to Lazio
The goal difference also speaks clearly for the visitors at 10:3
The last meeting ended in a 2-0 victory for Lazio
Key Players
For Cagliari, Sebastiano Esposito (3 season goals, 4 assists) and striker Semih Kılıçsoy (4 season goals) could be dangerous
For Lazio, midfielder Danilo Cataldi (3 goals, 3 assists) and attacker Gustav Isaksen (3 goals, 1 assist) are important players
Goalkeepers
In goal, Cagliari's Elia Caprile faces Lazio's Ivan Provedel
Provedel has a strong record this season with 11 clean sheets
In comparison, Caprile has kept 5 clean sheets
Influences
Cagliari has a balanced home record at the Sardegna Arena, averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.15 goals conceded per home game
The last five home matches have been rather low-scoring, with an average of 2.4 goals
Both teams scored in only one of these five matches