Serie A
Atalanta - Napoli
02/22/2026, 02:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.6
3.4
1.7
1:1
11%1:2
8%2:1
8%2:2
7%0:2
5%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
36%
Draw
25%
Away Win
39%
Goals
Over 1.5
86%
Under 1.5
14%
Over 2.5
65%
Under 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
43%
Under 3.5
57%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
61%
Away or Draw
64%
No Draw
75%
Both Score
Yes
67%
No
33%
Key Factors
- Significant personnel issues: Both teams are heavily weakened by absences. Atalanta has only 38% of its seasonal goal threat available, while Napoli has only 53%.
- Defense vs. Offense: Atalanta's strong home defense (0.67 goals conceded per game) meets Napoli's potent away attack (1.55 goals scored per game).
- Balanced prediction: The models suggest a very tight match (39% win probability for Napoli), with a high likelihood of both teams scoring (67%) indicating an open game.
Risk Factors
- Napoli's defensive vulnerability: The visitors have conceded an average of 1.8 goals in recent games, significantly higher than their season average of 1.31.
- Unpredictability due to absences: The numerous key absences on both sides, particularly in attack, create significant uncertainty about their offensive potential.
Overview
Atalanta (7th place, 42 points) hosts Napoli (3rd place, 50 points) at the Gewiss Stadium
A top Serie A match on February 22, 2026, 3:00 PM
This is a direct and important duel in the race for European spots
Form
Atalanta's form in the last five games is DWWWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
The team has recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss
Napoli's form is LWWDD
They secured 2 wins, 2 draws, and suffered one defeat, with the last two games ending in a draw
Statistics
Statistically, Napoli has a slightly stronger attack with an average of 1.52 goals per game
Atalanta, on the other hand, shines with a more solid defense, conceding only 0.84 goals per game
Atalanta is particularly strong at home, letting in an average of just 0.67 goals
The last five games at the Gewiss Stadium have been high-scoring, with an average of 3.4 goals
Head-to-Head
In the last five head-to-head encounters, Napoli has a slight advantage with 3 wins to Atalanta's 2
However, Atalanta scored more goals in these matches (10-8)
The last meeting was won by Napoli with a score of 3-1
Key Players
For Atalanta, Gianluca Scamacca (6 season goals), Nicola Zalewski (2 goals, 2 assists), and the in-form Éderson are crucial
For Napoli, hopes are pinned on Rasmus Højlund (8 goals), Scott McTominay (6 goals), and the recently very effective Antonio Vergara
Goalkeepers
In goal for Atalanta is Marco Carnesecchi, who has kept 10 clean sheets this season
His counterpart at Napoli, Vanja Milinković-Savić, has 9 clean sheets to his name
Influences
The home advantage could be decisive for Atalanta, as they concede an average of only 0.67 goals at the Gewiss Stadium
However, recent home games have been very high-scoring (average 3.4 goals), which suggests an entertaining match