Serie A
Roma - Cremonese
02/22/2026, 07:45 PM
Expected Goals
1.9
2.6
0.7
2:0
14%1:1
11%2:1
9%3:0
9%3:1
6%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
65%
Draw
24%
Away Win
12%
Goals
Over 1.5
74%
Under 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
48%
Under 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
26%
Under 3.5
74%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
88%
Away or Draw
35%
No Draw
76%
Both Score
Yes
44%
No
56%
Key Factors
- Defensive Fortress Roma: Roma's defense, especially at home (0.46 goals conceded/game), is one of the strongest in the league and faces a weak Cremonese attack
- Cremonese's Offensive Crisis: The visitors have averaged only 0.3 goals per game recently, well below their season average of 1.1
- Clear Mathematical Prediction: The prediction model sees Roma as the clear winner with a 65% probability
Risk Factors
- Weakened Roma Attack: Due to the absence of key players like Paulo Dybala and Evan Ferguson, only 58% of the seasonal goal threat is available
- Inconsistent Form of Roma: With only one win in their last five games (DDLWD), Roma could struggle to break down a defensive Cremonese side
- Potentially Low-Scoring Game: The model predicts only a 48% chance of Over 2.5 goals, suggesting a tight match where a single goal could be decisive
Overview
Roma (4th place, 47 points) hosts Cremonese (16th place, 24 points) at the Stadio Olimpico
The Serie A match takes place on February 22, 2026, 8:45 PM
Roma is aiming for a victory to solidify their position in the top 4, while Cremonese is seeking crucial points in the relegation battle
Form
Roma form (last 5 games): DDLWD (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss)
Cremonese form (last 5 games): DLLLD (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses)
Roma's form is inconsistent but significantly more stable than Cremonese, who are winless in their last five games
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Offensively, Roma averages 1.24 goals per game, while Cremonese scores 0.84
Defensively, Roma is very strong, conceding only 0.64 goals per game, compared to Cremonese's 1.32
At home, Roma is a powerhouse, conceding just 0.46 goals on average
Cremonese has conceded an average of 1.5 goals per away game
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Roma won 3 times, and Cremonese won 2 times
There have been no draws
The goal difference is 8:6 in favor of Roma
Roma won the last encounter 3-1
Key Players
MatĂas SoulĂ© has been directly involved in 10 goals this season (6 goals, 4 assists)
Donyell Malen has already scored 5 goals in just 5 appearances
Lorenzo Pellegrini is a key figure in Roma's midfield with 3 goals this season
Federico Bonazzoli is Cremonese's top scorer with 5 goals and 2 assists
Jamie Vardy, also with 5 goals this season, is another important pillar in the visitors' attack
Filippo Terracciano has already scored 2 goals as a defender
Goalkeepers
Roma's goalkeeper, Mile Svilar, has kept 11 clean sheets with his team this season
Emil Audero, the goalkeeper for Cremonese, has achieved 7 clean sheets with his team
Roma's defense, with only 16 goals conceded in 25 games, is significantly better than Cremonese's (33 goals conceded)
Influences
Roma enjoys a strong home advantage, reflected in their impressive home record of conceding only 0.46 goals per game
Statistics from the last 5 games at the Stadio Olimpico show an average of 2.6 goals per match
Both teams scored in only 2 of these 5 games