Serie A
Fiorentina - Pisa
02/23/2026, 05:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.9
3.1
1.2
1:1
12%2:1
10%2:0
9%3:1
6%1:2
6%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
54%
Draw
25%
Away Win
21%
Goals
Over 1.5
82%
Under 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
59%
Under 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
37%
Under 3.5
63%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
79%
Away or Draw
46%
No Draw
75%
Both Score
Yes
60%
No
40%
Key Factors
- Significant weakening of both teams: Fiorentina is missing players responsible for 52% of their season's goals, while Pisa is missing 50%
- Clear form advantage: Fiorentina is on an upward trend with two consecutive wins, whereas Pisa is winless in five games
- Home offense meets weak away defense: Although both teams are at the bottom of the table, Fiorentina has a statistically better starting position at home
Risk Factors
- Fiorentina's defensive vulnerability: Conceding an average of 1.56 goals per game, their defense remains a weak point
- Short recovery time for Fiorentina: The team has had only four days of rest since their last match, which could lead to fatigue
- Low historical significance: With only one previous 0-0 draw, the head-to-head comparison offers little insight
Overview
A crucial Serie A relegation battle takes place on February 23, 2026, at 6:30 PM, as Fiorentina (18th place, 21 points) hosts Pisa (19th place, 15 points) at the Stadio Artemio Franchi
Both teams are desperately fighting to stay in the league, adding extra tension to this match
The mathematical analysis favors Fiorentina with a 54% probability of winning
Form
Fiorentina's form is on the rise with two consecutive wins
Their form over the last five games: L L D W W (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)
They recently secured a clear 3-0 victory against Jagiellonia Białystok
Pisa, on the other hand, is winless in their last five matches
Their form over the last five games: D L L D L (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses)
Their last match was a 1-2 loss to AC Milan
Statistics
Fiorentina has scored an average of 1.16 goals per game this season and conceded 1.56
Both teams scored in 18 of their 25 matches
Pisa has a weak attack, scoring only 0.8 goals per game and failing to score in 12 of their 25 matches
Away from home, Pisa concedes an average of 1.3 goals per game
At Stadio Artemio Franchi, the last five matches have seen an average of 2.8 goals
Head-to-Head
The only recent head-to-head encounter ended in a draw
On September 28, 2025, the two teams finished with a 0-0 scoreline
In total, there has been 1 match, which was a draw
The goal difference is 0-0, suggesting a balanced history so far
Key Players
For Fiorentina, Moise Kean with 7 season goals and Nicolò Fagioli with 3 assists are the key figures in attack
Manor Solomon has also proven to be an important player with 2 goals in 8 appearances
For Pisa, Matteo Tramoni (2 goals, 2 assists) and Michel Aebischer (1 goal, 1 assist) are the crucial players in midfield
Idrissa Touré is also a regular starter for the team
Goalkeepers
In goal for Fiorentina is David de Gea, who has kept 3 clean sheets this season
Pisa's goal is defended by Nícolas
His team has kept a total of 5 clean sheets this season
Influences
Fiorentina has a slight home advantage, scoring an average of 1.13 goals per game at home while conceding 1.27
Stadio Artemio Franchi has recently guaranteed goals, with an average of 2.8 goals in the last five games and both teams scoring in 80% of those matches
The playing surface is grass