Serie A
Bologna - Udinese
02/23/2026, 07:45 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.2
0.8
1:1
14%1:0
14%0:0
13%2:0
11%2:1
9%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
48%
Draw
31%
Away Win
21%
Goals
Over 1.5
65%
Under 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
37%
Under 2.5
63%
Over 3.5
17%
Under 3.5
83%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
79%
Away or Draw
52%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
43%
No
57%
Key Factors
- Critical weakening for Udinese: With top scorer Keinan Davis (7 goals) out, only 54% of the usual offensive power is available
- Contrasting form trends: Bologna enters the match with two consecutive wins, while Udinese has suffered two straight defeats
- Favorite according to the model: The mathematical analysis favors Bologna with a 48% win probability
Risk Factors
- Bologna's attack also weakened: The home team is missing important players Nicolò Cambiaghi and Emil Holm, leaving only 62% of their goal threat on the pitch
- Potential fatigue for Bologna: The team had only four days to recover since their last match, while Udinese had eight days of rest
- Historically balanced encounters: The head-to-head record of the last five games shows no clear favorite, with one win each and three draws
Overview
Bologna (10th place, 33 points) hosts Udinese (11th place, 32 points) at the Stadio Renato Dall'Ara
It's a direct duel between two teams next to each other in the Serie A table
The match takes place on February 23, 2026, at 8:45 PM
Form
Bologna's form is LLDWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
From their last five games, they have 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses
The team is on an upswing with a two-game winning streak
Udinese's form is LWWLL
They recorded 2 wins and 3 losses, losing their last two matches
Statistics
Bologna scores an average of 1.36 goals per game, while Udinese scores 1.12
Defensively, Bologna is slightly more stable with 1.28 goals conceded per game compared to Udinese (1.52)
At home, Bologna concedes an average of 1.56 goals, while Udinese concedes 1.54 goals away
In the last five games at the Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, there has been an average of 2.6 goals
Head-to-Head
The record of the last five head-to-head encounters is completely balanced
Both teams have won once, with three matches ending in a draw
The goal difference is also identical at 5:5
The last meeting was won by Udinese with a score of 3:0
Key Players
For Bologna, forwards Santiago Castro and Riccardo Orsolini are the most dangerous players, each with 7 goals this season
For Udinese, midfielder Nicolò Zaniolo stands out with 5 goals and 2 assists
Defender Oumar Solet is also a goal threat with 3 goals this season
Goalkeepers
In goal for Bologna is Lukasz Skorupski
The team has kept 6 clean sheets this season
For Udinese, Maduka Okoye is the goalkeeper
Udinese has managed to keep a clean sheet 5 times so far
Influences
Bologna has a slight home advantage, but concedes a relatively high number of goals at home with 1.56 per game
The last five matches at the Stadio Renato Dall'Ara have been rather high-scoring, with an average of 2.6 goals
In 60% of these matches, both teams scored and there were over 2.5 goals