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Serie A

Bologna - Udinese

02/23/2026, 07:45 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Bologna
1.3
Total xG
2.2
Udinese
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

14%

0:0

13%

2:0

11%

2:1

9%
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

48%

Draw

31%

Away Win

21%

Goals

Over 1.5

65%

Under 1.5

35%

Over 2.5

37%

Under 2.5

63%

Over 3.5

17%

Under 3.5

83%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

79%

Away or Draw

52%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

43%

No

57%

Key Factors
  • Critical weakening for Udinese: With top scorer Keinan Davis (7 goals) out, only 54% of the usual offensive power is available
  • Contrasting form trends: Bologna enters the match with two consecutive wins, while Udinese has suffered two straight defeats
  • Favorite according to the model: The mathematical analysis favors Bologna with a 48% win probability
Risk Factors
  • Bologna's attack also weakened: The home team is missing important players Nicolò Cambiaghi and Emil Holm, leaving only 62% of their goal threat on the pitch
  • Potential fatigue for Bologna: The team had only four days to recover since their last match, while Udinese had eight days of rest
  • Historically balanced encounters: The head-to-head record of the last five games shows no clear favorite, with one win each and three draws
Overview

Bologna (10th place, 33 points) hosts Udinese (11th place, 32 points) at the Stadio Renato Dall'Ara

It's a direct duel between two teams next to each other in the Serie A table

The match takes place on February 23, 2026, at 8:45 PM

Form

Bologna's form is LLDWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

From their last five games, they have 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

The team is on an upswing with a two-game winning streak

Udinese's form is LWWLL

They recorded 2 wins and 3 losses, losing their last two matches

Statistics

Bologna scores an average of 1.36 goals per game, while Udinese scores 1.12

Defensively, Bologna is slightly more stable with 1.28 goals conceded per game compared to Udinese (1.52)

At home, Bologna concedes an average of 1.56 goals, while Udinese concedes 1.54 goals away

In the last five games at the Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, there has been an average of 2.6 goals

Head-to-Head

The record of the last five head-to-head encounters is completely balanced

Both teams have won once, with three matches ending in a draw

The goal difference is also identical at 5:5

The last meeting was won by Udinese with a score of 3:0

Key Players

For Bologna, forwards Santiago Castro and Riccardo Orsolini are the most dangerous players, each with 7 goals this season

For Udinese, midfielder Nicolò Zaniolo stands out with 5 goals and 2 assists

Defender Oumar Solet is also a goal threat with 3 goals this season

Goalkeepers

In goal for Bologna is Lukasz Skorupski

The team has kept 6 clean sheets this season

For Udinese, Maduka Okoye is the goalkeeper

Udinese has managed to keep a clean sheet 5 times so far

Influences

Bologna has a slight home advantage, but concedes a relatively high number of goals at home with 1.56 per game

The last five matches at the Stadio Renato Dall'Ara have been rather high-scoring, with an average of 2.6 goals

In 60% of these matches, both teams scored and there were over 2.5 goals

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