Serie A
Roma - Juventus
03/01/2026, 07:45 PM
Expected Goals
2.3
3.5
1.2
2:1
10%1:1
9%2:0
8%3:1
7%3:0
6%What influences the xG?
Roma
Juventus
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
62%
Draw
21%
Away Win
17%
Goals
Over 1.5
87%
Under 1.5
13%
Over 2.5
68%
Under 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
46%
Under 3.5
54%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
83%
Away or Draw
38%
No Draw
79%
Both Score
Yes
63%
No
37%
Key Factors
- Both teams are significantly weakened by the absence of key offensive players, with only 50% (Roma) and 44% (Juventus) of their usual goal threat available
- Roma's exceptional home defense (only 0.4 goals conceded per game) meets Juventus's potent away attack (1.64 goals per game)
- Current form clearly favors Roma, who are unbeaten in three games, while Juventus is in a crisis, supporting the 62% win probability for the home team
Risk Factors
- Juventus is missing a large part of its offensive power with players like Kenan Yıldız and Bremer absent; only 44% of the season's goals are available in the squad
- Roma also has to do without key attackers like Matías Soulé and Paulo Dybala, leaving only 50% of their goal threat on the pitch
- Despite their poor current form, Juventus has remained unbeaten against Roma in the last five head-to-head meetings
Overview
At the Stadio Olimpico, Roma (4th place, 50 points) hosts Juventus (6th place, 46 points) for a crucial Serie A clash
The match will take place on March 1, 2026, at 8:45 PM
Both teams are fighting for European spots, with Roma looking to extend their lead with a win
The mathematical analysis favors Roma with a 62% win probability
Form
Roma is in solid form with a record of WDWLD from their last five matches (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss)
Juventus, on the other hand, is struggling with its form, showing a record of WLLLD (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses)
Roma is unbeaten in their last three games, while Juventus is going through a difficult phase despite their most recent win
Statistics
Juventus has been stronger offensively this season, averaging 1.65 goals per game compared to Roma's 1.31
Defensively, however, Roma is a force, especially at home where they concede only 0.4 goals per game, while their season average is a strong 0.62 goals conceded
Juventus concedes an average of 1.18 goals per away game
Roma's matches tend to be lower-scoring (only 7 of 26 games with over 2.5 goals), while Juventus's games see more goals more often (12 of 26 games with over 2.5 goals)
Head-to-Head
In the last five head-to-head encounters, Juventus has had the upper hand
The record stands at 2 wins for Juventus, 3 draws, and no wins for Roma
The goal difference is 5:3 in favor of Juventus
The last meeting was won by Juventus with a score of 2:1
Key Players
For Roma, Donyell Malen stands out with 5 season goals in just 6 appearances, while Lorenzo Pellegrini directs the midfield with 3 goals and 1 assist
Bryan Cristante is a stalwart in midfield
For Juventus, Jonathan David (5 goals, 4 assists) and Weston McKennie (4 goals, 4 assists) are the key offensive players
Pierre Kalulu supports the play from defense with 2 goals and 3 assists
Goalkeepers
Roma's goalkeeper Mile Svilar can rely on a strong defense that has kept 12 clean sheets this season
Michele Di Gregorio of Juventus has kept 9 clean sheets so far this season
Influences
The home advantage for Roma is significant, reflected in their impressive defensive record at the Stadio Olimpico (only 6 goals conceded in 15 home games)
The last five matches at this stadium have seen an average of 2.8 goals per game
Both teams are accustomed to the natural grass surface at the stadium