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Serie A

Parma - Cagliari

02/27/2026, 07:45 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Parma
1.2
Total xG
2.5
Cagliari
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

10%

0:1

9%

1:0

9%

1:2

8%
What influences the xG?
PARCAG

Parma

Attack weakness (0.76x league average)
-0.01
Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)

Cagliari

Attack weakness (0.73x league average)
+0.21
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.02
Gianluca Gaetano not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)
50% of goal output missing (only 50% available)
Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.3 goals/match)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

34%

Draw

31%

Away Win

35%

Goals

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

45%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

65%

Away or Draw

66%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Cagliari is severely weakened: Due to absences, only 50% of the seasonal goal threat is available, with key player Gianluca Gaetano (2 goals/3 assists) missing
  • Form versus history: Parma is on the rise with three consecutive wins, while the historical record clearly favors Cagliari
  • Low-scoring match expected: Both teams have offensive problems, supported by low expected goals (1.23 vs 1.25) and a low probability for over 2.5 goals (45%)
Risk Factors
  • Parma's home weakness: With only 0.71 goals per home game, Parma struggles to create danger in their own stadium
  • Cagliari's away defense: The visitors concede an average of 1.67 goals on the road
  • Extremely open game: The mathematical prediction shows an almost identical win probability for both teams (34% vs 35%)
Overview

Parma (12th place, 32 points) host Cagliari (13th place, 29 points) at the Stadio Ennio Tardini

Serie A match on February 27, 2026, 8:45 PM

A direct duel between two mid-table neighbors

Form

Parma: Form LLWWW (3 wins, 2 losses in the last 5 matches)

The team is on a 3-game winning streak, including a 1-0 away win against AC Milan

Cagliari: Form WWLLD (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses in the last 5 matches)

Cagliari is winless in 3 games and has failed to score a single goal in those matches

Statistics

With only 19 goals in 26 games, Parma has one of the weakest attacks in the league (avg 0.73 goals per game)

Cagliari is slightly stronger offensively (avg 1.08 goals) but more vulnerable defensively (avg 1.35 goals conceded)

Cagliari's defense is particularly weak away, conceding an average of 1.67 goals per game

Parma has failed to score in 12 of 26 season matches

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Parma has not won a single game

Cagliari won 4 times, with one draw

The goal difference is clearly in favor of Cagliari with 10:5 goals

The last encounter ended in a 2-0 victory for Cagliari

Key Players

Mateo Pellegrino is Parma's top scorer with 7 season goals

Adriån Bernabé is an important midfielder for Parma with 3 goals and one assist

For Cagliari, Semih Kılıçsoy is a source of hope in attack with 4 goals

Sebastiano Esposito has contributed 3 goals and 4 assists and is a key player in the offense

Goalkeepers

Parma goalkeeper Edoardo Corvi is in goal

Cagliari relies on Elia Caprile

Parma has kept 9 clean sheets this season

Cagliari has managed this 6 times

Influences

Parma has a weak goal record at home with only 10 goals in 14 home games

Recent matches at the Stadio Ennio Tardini have been rather low-scoring, with an average of 2.2 goals per game in the last 5 fixtures

Both teams scored in only 2 of Parma's last 5 home matches

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