Serie A
Torino - Lazio
03/01/2026, 05:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.7
1.3
1:1
14%2:1
9%1:2
8%2:0
7%0:2
6%What influences the xG?
Torino
Lazio
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
38%
Draw
29%
Away Win
33%
Goals
Over 1.5
77%
Under 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
51%
Under 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
29%
Under 3.5
71%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
67%
Away or Draw
62%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
57%
No
43%
Key Factors
- Critical weakening of Lazio: The visitors have only 27% of their seasonal goal-scoring threat available due to numerous absences
- Defensive mismatch: Lazio's solid defense (0.96 goals conceded/game) meets one of the league's least effective attacks from Torino (0.96 goals scored/game)
- Historical dominance: Lazio is unbeaten in the last five head-to-head matches against Torino (3 wins, 2 draws)
Risk Factors
- Torino's offense is also weakened: With the absence of Ché Adams, only 56% of their seasonal goal threat is available
- Torino's defensive vulnerability: The home team concedes an average of 1.81 goals per game this season
Overview
Torino (15th place, 27 points) host Lazio (10th place, 34 points) at the Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino
Serie A match on March 1, 2026, 6:00 PM
Both teams are in the middle of the table, looking for a win to distance themselves from the relegation zone
Form
Torino comes into the match with a form of WLDLL from their last five games
This includes one win, one draw, and three losses, including their last two matches
Lazio's form is WDDLD
They have recorded one win, three draws, and one loss
Both teams are showing inconsistent form (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Both offenses are statistically on par, with around one goal per game (0.96 for Torino, 1.0 for Lazio)
The key difference lies in defense: Lazio concedes an average of only 0.96 goals per game, whereas Torino, with 1.81 goals conceded, has one of the more vulnerable backlines in the league
Torino struggles at home, conceding an average of 1.57 goals
Lazio is defensively solid away from home, conceding just 1.12 goals per game
Head-to-Head
In the last five head-to-head encounters, Torino has not secured a win, while Lazio has won three times, with two matches ending in a draw
The goal difference is clearly in Lazio's favor at 11:6
The last meeting ended in a 3-3 draw
Historically, Lazio has had the upper hand in recent encounters
Key Players
For Torino, Nikola Vlašić with 6 season goals and 3 assists, and striker Giovanni Simeone with 5 goals, are crucial for the attack
Defender Saúl Coco is an important pillar in the defense
For Lazio, Gustav Isaksen with 3 goals and one assist is a key figure in their attack
Mattia Zaccagni has also scored 3 goals this season
Goalkeeper Ivan Provedel is a key player with a high average rating of 7.15
Goalkeepers
In goal for Torino is Alberto Paleari; his team has kept 9 clean sheets this season
Lazio is guarded by Ivan Provedel, who has been instrumental in his team's 12 clean sheets
Statistically, Lazio has a slight advantage here
Influences
Torino has a mixed record at home, averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.57 goals conceded
The last five matches at the Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino have been relatively low-scoring, with an average of 2.4 goals per game
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 home matches