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Serie A

Como - Lecce

02/28/2026, 02:00 PM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Como
1.7
Total xG
2.5
Lecce
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:0

13%

2:0

12%

1:1

12%

0:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
COMLEC

Como

Attack strength (1.56x league average)
+0.56
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.29
Declining form (1.2 vs 2 season average)
-0.21
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 18, 13 places gap)
+0.11
Martin Baturina not in starting XI (4 goals, 3 assists)

Lecce

Attack weakness (0.72x league average)
-0.42
Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 5, 13 places gap)
-0.11
Rising form (1 vs 0.8 season average)
+0.06
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
+0.00
Medon Berisha not in starting XI (2 goals, 3 assists)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

59%

Draw

26%

Away Win

15%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

45%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

85%

Away or Draw

41%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

45%

No

55%

Key Factors
  • League table disparity: Como is fighting for European spots (6th place), while Lecce is deep in a relegation battle (18th place)
  • Massive home strength vs. away weakness: Como is dominant at home with 1.62 goals per game, whereas Lecce scores only 0.67 goals away
  • Defensive stability vs. weak attack: Como's defense concedes just 0.73 goals per game, while Lecce has one of the league's weakest offenses with only 0.68 goals per game
Risk Factors
  • Como's declining goal threat: Their recent goal production (1.3 goals per game) is below their season average (2.0)
  • Lecce showing fighting spirit: Despite their league position, Lecce has won two of their last four matches
Overview

Como (6th place, 45 points) hosts Lecce (18th place, 24 points) at the Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia

Serie A match on February 28, 2026, 3:00 PM

The home team is aiming to secure a European spot, while the visitors urgently need points in their relegation battle

Form

Como Form (all competitions): DDLDW

In the last five matches, there has been one win, three draws, and one loss

They recently achieved a 2-0 victory away at Juventus

Lecce Form (all competitions): DLWWL

Lecce recorded two wins and two losses with one draw in their last five games

Their last match was a 0-2 defeat against Inter

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Como is very strong at home, averaging 1.62 goals scored and conceding only 0.69 goals per home game

Lecce struggles away, scoring an average of just 0.67 goals while conceding 1.25

Como has kept 13 clean sheets this season, while Lecce has managed 8

Both teams scored in 10 of Como's 26 matches, and in 8 of Lecce's 25 matches

Head-to-Head

In the last five head-to-head encounters, Como dominated with three wins, while Lecce won only once, and one match ended in a draw

The goal difference is clearly in favor of Como at 9:2

Como won the last meeting 3:0

Key Players

Anastasios Douvikas is Como's top scorer with eight goals this season

JesĂșs RodrĂ­guez has already provided six assists

MĂĄximo Perrone is a key player in midfield with two goals and three assists

For Lecce, Lameck Banda is the most dangerous attacker with three goals and two assists

Lassana Coulibaly is showing rising form in midfield

Ylber Ramadani is also an important midfielder with a rising trend

Goalkeepers

Como's goalkeeper Jean Butez has kept 13 clean sheets in 26 games this season

His counterpart, Wladimiro Falcone of Lecce, has 8 clean sheets in 25 appearances

Influences

Como has a clear home advantage and is particularly strong at the Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, with a positive goal difference of 21:9

The last five matches at this stadium have been high-scoring, with an average of 3.0 goals per game

Over 2.5 goals were scored in three of Como's last five home games

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