Serie A
Inter - Genoa
02/28/2026, 07:45 PM
Expected Goals
2.1
3.5
1.3
1:1
10%2:1
9%2:0
7%3:1
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Inter
Genoa
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
54%
Draw
23%
Away Win
23%
Goals
Over 1.5
87%
Under 1.5
13%
Over 2.5
67%
Under 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
46%
Under 3.5
54%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
77%
Away or Draw
46%
No Draw
77%
Both Score
Yes
66%
No
34%
Key Factors
- Critical absences for Inter: Key players like Lautaro Martínez and Hakan Çalhanoğlu are missing, leaving only 45% of the seasonal goal threat available
- Midfield dominance: Inter controls the game with an average of 64% possession and 8 shots on target per game, where Genoa is clearly inferior
- Home strength vs. away weakness: Inter is extremely strong at home (2.4 goals per game), while Genoa is defensively vulnerable away (1.58 goals conceded per game)
Risk Factors
- Increased goal threat from Genoa: The visitors have been scoring more frequently recently (2.5 goals per game) than their season average (1.5)
- Inter's defense more vulnerable lately: The home team has conceded an average of 1.4 goals in recent games, significantly more than their season average of 0.92
- The probability of both teams scoring is considered relatively high at 66%
Overview
Top match in Serie A: League leader Inter (1st place, 64 points) hosts Genoa (14th place, 27 points) at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
The match will take place on February 28, 2026, 8:45 PM
Inter enters the game as the favorite despite significant absences, with a win probability of 54%
Genoa hopes to increase the gap to the relegation zone
Form
Inter's form is WWLWL, having won 3 of their last 5 matches but also losing 2
Genoa comes with a record of WLLDW from their last 5 games, meaning 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses
Inter suffered a 1-2 home defeat against Bodø / Glimt in their last match
Genoa won their last game 3-0 against Torino
Statistics
Inter boasts one of the strongest attacks in the league, averaging 2.4 goals per game
They are particularly prolific at home, also scoring an average of 2.4 goals per game
Genoa scores an average of 1.25 goals away from home but also concedes 1.58 goals
In 16 of Genoa's 26 league games, both teams scored, suggesting an open style of play
Head-to-Head
Inter is unbeaten in the last 5 head-to-head encounters
The record stands at 3 wins for Inter and 2 draws
The goal difference is 8:5 in favor of Inter
The last meeting was won by Inter with a score of 2-1
Key Players
For Inter, Federico Dimarco (5 goals, 13 assists) and Marcus Thuram (7 goals, 3 assists) are crucial for the attack
Piotr Zieliński (5 goals, 1 assist) also provides important contributions from midfield
For Genoa, Ruslan Malinovskyi is the key player with 5 goals and 3 assists
Lorenzo Colombo is the team's top scorer with 6 goals this season
Goalkeepers
Inter's goalkeeper Yann Sommer has kept 13 clean sheets this season
Genoa's goalkeeper Justin Bijlow has kept a clean sheet 6 times this campaign
Statistically, Sommer has a clear advantage, backed by Inter's strong defense
Influences
Inter is a force at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, averaging 2.4 goals scored and only 0.8 goals conceded at home
The last 5 matches at this stadium have been high-scoring, with an average of 2.8 goals per game
In 4 of these 5 games, both teams scored, which points towards an entertaining match