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Serie A

Sassuolo - Atalanta

03/01/2026, 02:00 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Sassuolo
1.2
Total xG
2.6
Atalanta
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

0:2

8%

2:1

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
SASATA

Sassuolo

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.17
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.17
Cristian Volpato not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)

Atalanta

Attack strength (1.54x league average)
+0.36
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.11
Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.11
Gianluca Scamacca not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)
Charles De Ketelaere not in starting XI (3 goals, 3 assists)
47% of goal output missing (only 52% available)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

30%

Draw

29%

Away Win

41%

Goals

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

59%

Away or Draw

70%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • Depleted Atalanta attack: Due to the absence of key players like Gianluca Scamacca and Charles De Ketelaere, only 53% of the team's usual goal threat is available
  • Atalanta's defensive superiority: The visitors concede only 0.85 goals per game on average, while Sassuolo is much more vulnerable with 1.35 goals conceded
  • Identical top form: Both teams enter the match with a record of 4 wins from the last 5 games, suggesting a balanced encounter
Risk Factors
  • Sassuolo's home weakness: The team concedes an average of 1.58 goals per game at home, making them particularly vulnerable
  • Key defensive absence: Sassuolo must manage without suspended defender Sebastian Walukiewicz, which could further weaken their backline
Overview

Sassuolo (9th place, 35 points) hosts Atalanta (7th place, 45 points) at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore

The Serie A match takes place on March 1, 2026, 3:00 PM

Both teams are in strong form, competing for important points in the midfield of the table

Form

Both teams are showing impressive form

Sassuolo's form in the last five games: WWLWW (4 wins, 1 loss)

Atalanta's form in the last five games: WWLWW (4 wins, 1 loss)

Both teams enter the match with a two-game winning streak

Statistics

Atalanta has a stronger attack (1.38 goals per game) than Sassuolo (1.23 goals per game)

Defensively, Atalanta is significantly more stable, conceding only 0.85 goals per game, while Sassuolo concedes 1.35

Sassuolo's defense is particularly vulnerable at home (1.58 goals conceded per game)

Atalanta has kept 10 clean sheets, Sassuolo has 6

Head-to-Head

In the last five head-to-head encounters, Atalanta had the upper hand with 3 wins to Sassuolo's 2

There have been no draws in this period

The last meeting was a 3-0 victory for Atalanta

In total, 13 goals were scored, averaging 2.6 goals per game

Key Players

Domenico Berardi is a key player for Sassuolo with 7 goals and 3 assists

Andrea Pinamonti has also contributed with 6 goals and 3 assists

For Atalanta, Nikola Krstović is the top scorer with 7 goals and 4 assists

Mario Pašalić is an important midfielder with 3 goals and 4 assists

Goalkeepers

Sassuolo's goalkeeper is Arijanet Murić, who has kept 6 clean sheets this season

Atalanta's goal is defended by Marco Carnesecchi, who has already kept 10 clean sheets

Influences

Sassuolo is defensively vulnerable at home, conceding an average of 1.58 goals per game

Atalanta is stable away from home, conceding only 1.1 goals on average

The MAPEI Stadium has seen an average of 2.8 goals per game in the last five matches

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