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Serie A

Hellas Verona - Napoli

02/28/2026, 05:00 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Hellas Verona
0.8
Total xG
2.7
Napoli
1.9
Most Likely Scores

0:2

12%

1:1

12%

1:2

10%

0:3

7%

1:3

6%
What influences the xG?
HVNAP

Hellas Verona

Defensive weakness (2.1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.87
Attack weakness (0.56x league average)
-0.49
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 20 vs 3, 17 places gap)
-0.14
Declining form (0.5 vs 0.9 season average)
-0.12
Gift Orban not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)
Giovane not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)
84% of goal output missing (only 10% available)

Napoli

Attack strength (1.39x league average)
+0.86
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 20, 17 places gap)
+0.13
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.08
Scott McTominay not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)
David Neres  not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)
Leonardo Spinazzola not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)
Frank Anguissa  not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)
64% of goal output missing (only 35% available)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

14%

Draw

25%

Away Win

61%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

39%

Away or Draw

86%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • Gap in class: Third-placed Napoli faces bottom-of-the-table Hellas Verona, who are winless in their last five games
  • Offensive superiority: Napoli's attack, averaging 1.5 goals and 5.0 shots on target per game, is vastly superior to Verona's (0.73 goals, 1.8 shots on target)
  • Critical absences for Verona: The home team is missing players responsible for almost 90% of their season's goals, further crippling their already weak offense
Risk Factors
  • Decimated Napoli offense: The visitors are also heavily weakened, with players responsible for 64% of their season's goals not in the squad
  • Verona's weakness at home: Averaging only 0.73 goals scored per home game, Verona poses a very limited offensive threat
Overview

Hellas Verona (20th place, 15 points) host Napoli (3rd place, 50 points) at the Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi

Serie A match on February 28, 2026, 6:00 PM

The scenario is clear: a relegation candidate meets a title contender, with the mathematical analysis giving Napoli a 61% chance of winning

Form

Hellas Verona's form (all competitions): LLDLL

The team is winless in 5 games (0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses)

Napoli's form is WWDDL

In the last 5 matches, they have recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

Statistics

A clear contrast in attack: Napoli scores an average of 1.5 goals per game, while Hellas Verona only manages 0.73

Defensively, Napoli is also more solid, conceding 1.04 goals per game compared to Verona's 1.77

Hellas Verona has failed to score in 13 of their 26 league games this season

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Napoli has dominated with 3 wins to Hellas Verona's one, with one draw

The goal difference is 9-7 in favor of Napoli

The last encounter ended in a 2-2 draw

Key Players

Victor Nelsson is a key player in Verona's defense with 26 appearances

In midfield, Cheikh Niasse is a regular with 19 appearances

For Napoli, forward Rasmus Højlund stands out, having contributed 8 goals and 2 assists this season

Stanislav Lobotka sets the pace in midfield with 22 appearances

Goalkeepers

Hellas Verona's goalkeeper, Lorenzo Montipò, has kept 5 clean sheets this season

His counterpart, Vanja Milinković-Savić, has 9 clean sheets for Napoli

Influences

Hellas Verona is somewhat more stable defensively at home, conceding an average of 1.27 goals per game compared to 2.45 away

Recent games at the Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi have been relatively high-scoring, with an average of 2.6 goals per game

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 of the last 5 home matches

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