Serie A
Cremonese - AC Milan
03/01/2026, 11:30 AM
Expected Goals
0.8
2.4
1.6
0:1
13%1:1
13%0:2
12%0:0
11%1:2
9%What influences the xG?
Cremonese
AC Milan
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
16%
Draw
28%
Away Win
56%
Goals
Over 1.5
70%
Under 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
43%
Under 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
22%
Under 3.5
78%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
44%
Away or Draw
84%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
44%
No
56%
Key Factors
- Offensive weakness at Cremonese: According to analysis, due to absences including Jamie Vardy, only 48% of the usual goal threat is available
- Clear difference in quality and form: Second-placed AC Milan faces the sixteenth-placed team, which is winless in five games
- Milan's defensive strength: The Rossoneri have one of the best defensive lines in the league, especially away with only 0.6 goals conceded per game
Risk Factors
- Surprising H2H record: Cremonese is unbeaten in the last three direct encounters against AC Milan (1 win, 2 draws)
- Milan's faltering offense: According to the data, Milan's goal production has recently declined slightly, from 1.6 to 1.4 goals per game
Overview
Cremonese (16th place, 24 points) host AC Milan (2nd place, 54 points) at the Stadio Giovanni Zini
The Serie A match takes place on March 1, 2026, at 12:30 PM
The Rossoneri are clear favorites and aim to secure points in the title race, while Cremonese is fighting relegation
The mathematical analysis supports this with a 56% win probability for the visitors
Form
Cremonese's form is LLLDL (W=Win, D=Draw, L=Loss)
In the last 5 games, there have been no wins, one draw, and four losses
AC Milan's form is DWWDL
They have secured 2 wins and 2 draws with one loss from their last five matches
Statistics
AC Milan has a significantly stronger attack, averaging 1.58 goals per game compared to Cremonese's 0.81
AC Milan is particularly strong defensively away from home, conceding only 0.6 goals on average
Cremonese's attack is weak at home, scoring just 0.79 goals per game
The home team failed to score in 13 of 26 league games, while AC Milan failed to score in only two
Head-to-Head
In the last 3 direct encounters, Cremonese has a surprisingly positive record
They won once, while AC Milan remained winless, and 2 matches ended in a draw
The goal difference is 3-2 in favor of Cremonese
The last meeting was won by Cremonese with a score of 2-1
Key Players
For Cremonese, Federico Bonazzoli is the top scorer with 5 goals this season
For AC Milan, attackers Christian Pulisic and Rafael LeĆ£o are crucial with 8 goals each
In midfield, Adrien Rabiot directs the play with 4 goals and 4 assists
Goalkeepers
The duel between the goalkeepers features Emil Audero for Cremonese and Mike Maignan for AC Milan
Maignan has already kept 11 clean sheets this season
Audero has 7 clean sheets to his name
Influences
AC Milan has an excellent away record, conceding only 0.6 goals per game
Cremonese's home advantage is minimal, with only 0.79 goals scored per home game
The statistics for the Stadio Giovanni Zini suggest a tendency for low-scoring matches, with an average of just 1.6 goals in recent games