Serie A
Udinese - Fiorentina
03/02/2026, 07:45 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
2.7
1.7
1:1
13%1:2
10%0:2
9%2:1
6%1:3
5%Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
23%
Draw
27%
Away Win
49%
Goals
Over 1.5
77%
Under 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
52%
Under 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
29%
Under 3.5
71%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
51%
Away or Draw
77%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
55%
No
45%
Key Factors
- Form Disparity: Fiorentina's strong form (DWWWL) contrasts with Udinese's three consecutive losses (WWLLL)
- Fiorentina's Offensive Improvement: The team is scoring significantly more frequently of late (2.0 goals per game) than their season average (1.3)
- Historical Dominance: Fiorentina has won 3 of the last 5 head-to-head matches, including a decisive 5-1 victory in the last game
Risk Factors
- Fiorentina's vulnerable away defense: They concede an average of 2.0 goals per away game
- Potential fatigue for Fiorentina: The team has had only 4 days of rest since the last match, compared to Udinese's 7 days
- Weak league position: Despite good form, Fiorentina is in 17th place, indicating underlying season-long issues
Overview
Udinese, in 12th place in the table with 32 points, hosts Fiorentina, who are in 17th place with 24 points
The Serie A match takes place on March 2, 2026, at 8:45 PM at the Dacia Arena
For Udinese, the goal is to end a losing streak, while Fiorentina aims to move further away from the relegation zone
Form
Udinese is going through a difficult phase with a form of WWLLL from their last five games
They have lost their last three consecutive matches
Fiorentina, on the other hand, is showing strong form with DWWWL
They have secured 3 wins and one draw from their last five fixtures, but lost their most recent game
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Both teams have shown defensive vulnerabilities this season, each conceding 39 goals in 26 games (an average of 1.5 per game)
Offensively, Fiorentina is slightly more dangerous with 1.15 goals per game compared to Udinese's 1.08
Fiorentina's defense is particularly vulnerable away, conceding an average of 2.0 goals per match
In Fiorentina's games, both teams scored in 18 out of 26 matches, while for Udinese it was 15 out of 26
Head-to-Head
In the last five head-to-head encounters, Fiorentina has been the clearly superior team
They won 3 times, while Udinese won only once, and one match ended in a draw
The goal difference also clearly favors Fiorentina at 13:7
The last meeting ended in a dominant 5-1 victory for Fiorentina
Key Players
For Udinese, the main goal threat comes from Keinan Davis, who has already scored 7 goals this season
Nicolò Zaniolo has also proven his importance with 5 goals this season
Arthur Atta is showing rising form in midfield
For Fiorentina, Moise Kean is the top scorer with 8 season goals and is in improving form
Rolando Mandragora is a constant threat from midfield with 6 goals
Nicolò Fagioli has also been in good form recently
Goalkeepers
Maduka Okoye is in goal for Udinese, whose team has kept 5 clean sheets this season
For Fiorentina, Luca Lezzerini is expected to be between the posts
His team has kept 4 clean sheets so far this season
Influences
Udinese's home advantage is statistically weak, as they concede more goals (1.5) on average at home than they score (1.08)
The last five games at the Dacia Arena have seen an average of 2.2 goals per game
Both teams scored in 3 of these 5 matches