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Serie A

Lecce - Cremonese

03/08/2026, 11:30 AM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Lecce
1.3
Total xG
2.3
Cremonese
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

1:0

12%

2:0

9%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
LECCRE

Lecce

Attack weakness (0.59x league average)
+0.07
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
+0.06
Rising form (1 vs 0.8 season average)
+0.06
Riccardo Sottil on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Omri Gandelman on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)

Cremonese

Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.58
Attack weakness (0.79x league average)
-0.24
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match)
-0.23
Declining form (0.2 vs 1 season average)
-0.21
Federico Baschirotto not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
Filippo Terracciano not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
16% of goal output missing (only 100% available)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

42%

Draw

32%

Away Win

26%

Goals

Over 1.5

68%

Under 1.5

32%

Over 2.5

40%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

74%

Away or Draw

58%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • Prediction Advantage: The mathematical analysis sees Lecce as favorites for a win with 42%
  • Cremonese's Form Slump: Cremonese's goal production is significantly below their season average of 1.0, with only 0.3 goals per game recently
  • Defensive Strength: Lecce concedes an average of only 1.29 goals at home, while Cremonese allows 1.62 goals away
Risk Factors
  • Low Goal Threat: Both teams employ a counter-oriented style with an average of only 2.6 (Lecce) and 3.2 (Cremonese) shots on target per game
  • Home Offensive Weakness: Lecce scores only an average of 0.64 goals per home game
Overview

Lecce (18th place, 24 points) hosts Cremonese (16th place, 24 points) at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare

Serie A match on March 8, 2026, 12:30 PM

Both teams are deeply involved in the relegation battle and fighting for crucial points

Form

Lecce's current form (LWWLL) shows two wins and three losses in their last five matches across all competitions

They have suffered two consecutive losses recently

Cremonese (LLDLL) has not managed a win in their last five matches, with one draw and four losses

Cremonese has also recorded two consecutive losses recently

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Lecce scores an average of 0.67 goals per game and concedes 1.33 goals

At home, they score 0.64 and concede 1.29 goals per home game

Cremonese averages 0.78 goals scored and 1.41 goals conceded

Away, Cremonese scores 0.77 goals and concedes 1.62 goals per away game

Lecce kept 8 clean sheets this season, while Cremonese managed 7

Both teams scored in 9 of Lecce's games and 11 of Cremonese's games

At Stadio Comunale Via del Mare, the last five matches averaged 2.0 goals per game

Both teams scored in 2 of 5 matches, and there were over 2.5 goals in 2 of 5 matches

Head-to-Head

In the five previous head-to-head encounters, Lecce won twice, Cremonese won twice, and there was one draw

The goal difference is 7:5 in favor of Cremonese

The last meeting on December 7, 2025, saw Lecce win 2:0 away

Key Players

Lameck Banda is a key offensive player for Lecce with 3 goals and 3 assists

Lassana Coulibaly contributes to the midfield with 3 goals and 1 assist, showing a rising form trend

Nikola Stulic has scored 2 goals this season

For Cremonese, Federico Bonazzoli is a crucial forward with 5 goals and 2 assists, though his form is declining

Jamie Vardy also scored 5 goals and 1 assist, with his form also showing a negative trend

Jari Vandeputte has provided 4 assists

Goalkeepers

Wladimiro Falcone for Lecce played in 27 season matches and kept 8 clean sheets

Emil Audero for Cremonese made 23 appearances and achieved 7 clean sheets

Influences

Lecce's home advantage is reflected in 0.64 goals scored and 1.29 goals conceded per home game

The Comunale Via del Mare stadium tends to be low-scoring, averaging 2.0 goals per match

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