Serie A
Lecce - Cremonese
03/08/2026, 11:30 AM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.3
1.0
1:1
15%0:0
12%1:0
12%2:0
9%2:1
8%What influences the xG?
Lecce
Cremonese
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
42%
Draw
32%
Away Win
26%
Goals
Over 1.5
68%
Under 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
40%
Under 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
19%
Under 3.5
81%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
74%
Away or Draw
58%
No Draw
68%
Both Score
Yes
47%
No
53%
Key Factors
- Prediction Advantage: The mathematical analysis sees Lecce as favorites for a win with 42%
- Cremonese's Form Slump: Cremonese's goal production is significantly below their season average of 1.0, with only 0.3 goals per game recently
- Defensive Strength: Lecce concedes an average of only 1.29 goals at home, while Cremonese allows 1.62 goals away
Risk Factors
- Low Goal Threat: Both teams employ a counter-oriented style with an average of only 2.6 (Lecce) and 3.2 (Cremonese) shots on target per game
- Home Offensive Weakness: Lecce scores only an average of 0.64 goals per home game
Overview
Lecce (18th place, 24 points) hosts Cremonese (16th place, 24 points) at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare
Serie A match on March 8, 2026, 12:30 PM
Both teams are deeply involved in the relegation battle and fighting for crucial points
Form
Lecce's current form (LWWLL) shows two wins and three losses in their last five matches across all competitions
They have suffered two consecutive losses recently
Cremonese (LLDLL) has not managed a win in their last five matches, with one draw and four losses
Cremonese has also recorded two consecutive losses recently
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Lecce scores an average of 0.67 goals per game and concedes 1.33 goals
At home, they score 0.64 and concede 1.29 goals per home game
Cremonese averages 0.78 goals scored and 1.41 goals conceded
Away, Cremonese scores 0.77 goals and concedes 1.62 goals per away game
Lecce kept 8 clean sheets this season, while Cremonese managed 7
Both teams scored in 9 of Lecce's games and 11 of Cremonese's games
At Stadio Comunale Via del Mare, the last five matches averaged 2.0 goals per game
Both teams scored in 2 of 5 matches, and there were over 2.5 goals in 2 of 5 matches
Head-to-Head
In the five previous head-to-head encounters, Lecce won twice, Cremonese won twice, and there was one draw
The goal difference is 7:5 in favor of Cremonese
The last meeting on December 7, 2025, saw Lecce win 2:0 away
Key Players
Lameck Banda is a key offensive player for Lecce with 3 goals and 3 assists
Lassana Coulibaly contributes to the midfield with 3 goals and 1 assist, showing a rising form trend
Nikola Stulic has scored 2 goals this season
For Cremonese, Federico Bonazzoli is a crucial forward with 5 goals and 2 assists, though his form is declining
Jamie Vardy also scored 5 goals and 1 assist, with his form also showing a negative trend
Jari Vandeputte has provided 4 assists
Goalkeepers
Wladimiro Falcone for Lecce played in 27 season matches and kept 8 clean sheets
Emil Audero for Cremonese made 23 appearances and achieved 7 clean sheets
Influences
Lecce's home advantage is reflected in 0.64 goals scored and 1.29 goals conceded per home game
The Comunale Via del Mare stadium tends to be low-scoring, averaging 2.0 goals per match