Serie A
Napoli - Torino
03/06/2026, 07:45 PM
Expected Goals
1.8
2.8
1.0
1:1
12%2:1
10%2:0
10%3:1
6%3:0
6%What influences the xG?
Napoli
Torino
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
54%
Draw
26%
Away Win
20%
Goals
Over 1.5
79%
Under 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
54%
Under 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
31%
Under 3.5
69%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
80%
Away or Draw
46%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
55%
No
45%
Key Factors
- Pipeline probability: Mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 54%
- Offensive strength vs. defensive weakness: Napoli's stronger home offense (1.5 goals/game) meets Torino's vulnerable away defense (2.08 goals conceded/game)
- Form trend: Napoli is currently scoring more frequently (1.8 goals per game) than their season average (1.5 goals per game)
Risk Factors
- Injury absences: Napoli is affected by absences, including Scott McTominay (6G/3A), Stanislav Lobotka (1G/1A), and Amir Rrahmani (1G/1A)
- Historical record: Torino won the last direct encounter with 1-0
- Defensive orientation: Torino is counter-oriented (43% possession) and averages 3.6 shots on target
Overview
Napoli (3rd place, 53 points) host Torino (14th place, 30 points) at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. The Serie A match is scheduled for March 6, 2026, 8:45 PM. Napoli aims to consolidate their position in the top half of the table and qualify for the Champions League.
Form
Napoli's recent form is WDDLW, with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last five games. Their last match was a win (W) against Hellas Verona. Napoli is currently scoring more frequently (1.8 goals per game) than their season average (1.5 goals per game). Torino's form is LDLLW, indicating 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last five matches. Their last game was a win (W) against Lazio. Torino scores consistently (~1.2 goals per game).
Statistics
Napoli averages 1.52 goals scored per game and concedes 1.04 goals. In home games, they average 1.5 goals scored and 0.79 goals conceded. The team kept 9 clean sheets this season, with 4 of them at home. Torino averages 1.0 goal scored per game and concedes 1.74 goals. In away games, they average 1.0 goal scored and 2.08 goals conceded. Torino kept 10 clean sheets this season, with 5 of them away. At the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, an average of 3.0 total goals per game are scored. Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 matches.
Head-to-Head
In the 5 head-to-head matches played, Napoli secured 2 wins, there was 1 draw, and Torino claimed 2 victories. Napoli scored 4 goals in these encounters, while Torino netted 5 times. The last direct encounter on October 18, 2025, ended in a 1-0 away win for Torino. The recent head-to-head record between these teams is even.
Key Players
For Napoli, Rasmus Højland is a key player with 9 goals and 2 assists this season. He scored 2 goals and provided 1 assist in his last 5 games, showing a rising form trend. Antonio Vergara contributed 1 goal and 2 assists this season, scoring 1 goal in his last 5 appearances, also with a rising form trend. Alisson Santos recorded 1 goal this season and 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 5 games. For Torino, Nikola Vlašić is notable with 6 goals and 3 assists this season. He provided 1 assist in his last 5 games and his form trend is rising. Giovanni Simeone has scored 6 goals this season. Duván Zapata contributed 2 goals and 1 assist this season.
Goalkeepers
Napoli's goalkeeper, Vanja Milinković-Savić, has made 19 appearances this season with an average rating of 6.76. His team achieved 9 clean sheets. For Torino, Alberto Paleari has played in 18 games with an average rating of 6.81. His team kept 10 clean sheets.
Influences
The Stadio Diego Armando Maradona has seen an average of 3.0 goals per game in the last 5 matches. Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 games. Napoli scores an average of 1.5 goals per home game and concedes 0.79 goals, indicating a home advantage. Torino concedes an average of 2.08 goals per away game, showing their vulnerability on the road.