Serie A
Genoa - Roma
03/08/2026, 05:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.0
2.4
1.4
1:1
14%0:1
11%0:0
11%0:2
9%1:2
9%What influences the xG?
Genoa
Roma
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
25%
Draw
30%
Away Win
45%
Goals
Over 1.5
71%
Under 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
43%
Under 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
22%
Under 3.5
78%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
55%
Away or Draw
75%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
49%
No
51%
Key Factors
- Pipeline forecast: The mathematical analysis sees Roma as favorites with 45%, with 1.40 expected goals
- Roma's defensive strength: With only 0.7 goals conceded per game, Roma is one of the league's strongest defensive teams
- Genoa's poor form: The home team lost 3 of their last 5 games, while Roma remained unbeaten during this period
Risk Factors
- Genoa's defensive weakness: They conceded an average of 1.44 goals per game this season
- Roma's increased goals conceded: In recent games, Roma conceded an average of 1.2 goals, compared to 0.7 on season average
Overview
Genoa (15th place, 27 points) host Roma (4th place, 51 points) at the Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris
The Serie A match takes place on March 8, 2026, 6:00 PM
Roma are fighting for a Champions League spot, while Genoa are in the midfield of the table
Form
Genoa shows a form of LLDWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) in their last five matches
This equates to 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses
Their last home game was a 3-0 win against Torino, followed by a 0-2 away loss against Inter
Roma has a form of LWDWD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss) in their last five matches
This equates to 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss
They recently drew 3-3 against Juventus and won 3-0 against Cremonese
Statistics
Genoa scores an average of 1.19 goals per game and concedes 1.44 goals
They kept 6 clean sheets
Genoa is currently scoring more frequently (1.8) than their season average (1.5) and shows a positive form trend
Roma shows a stronger offense with an average of 1.37 goals per game and concedes only 0.7 goals on average, with 12 clean sheets
Roma is currently scoring more frequently (2.0) than their season average (1.4) and also shows a positive form trend
In Genoa's home games at the Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, an average of 3.6 goals per game were scored
Both teams scored in 3 out of 5 home games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 out of 5 games
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches between Genoa and Roma, Genoa won 1, Roma won 3, and there was 1 draw
The goal difference is 7:9 in favor of Roma
The last encounter was on December 29, 2025, with Roma winning 1-3 away
Roma has been the more dominant team in recent meetings
Key Players
For Genoa, Ruslan Malinovskyi (5 goals, 3 assists) with rising form, Lorenzo Colombo (6 goals, 1 assist), and Leo ĂstigĂ„rd (4 goals, 1 assist) are the most important players
For Roma, Donyell Malen (6 goals) with rising form, Lorenzo Pellegrini (3 goals, 2 assists), and Manu Koné (2 goals, 2 assists) stand out
Brooke Norton-Cuffy (2 goals, 1 assist) is not in Genoa's lineup, meaning 96% of the usual starting XI's strength is available
MatĂas SoulĂ© (6 goals, 4 assists) and Wesley (4 goals) are missing for Roma, leaving 76% of the usual starting XI's strength available
Goalkeepers
Genoa's goalkeeper Justin Bijlow made 6 season appearances and kept 4 home clean sheets
Roma relies on Mile Svilar, who managed 5 away clean sheets in 27 season appearances
Influences
Genoa scores an average of 1.21 home goals and concedes 1.29 home goals in their own stadium
The Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris has seen an average of 3.6 goals per game in the last 5 matches
Both teams scored in 60% of the games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 80% of the games