Serie A
AC Milan - Inter
03/08/2026, 07:45 PM
Expected Goals
1.2
2.6
1.4
1:1
14%1:2
8%2:1
8%0:2
7%2:0
6%What influences the xG?
AC Milan
Inter
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
33%
Draw
30%
Away Win
38%
Goals
Over 1.5
75%
Under 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
48%
Under 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
26%
Under 3.5
74%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
62%
Away or Draw
67%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
54%
No
46%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis slightly favors Inter with a 38% win probability
- AC Milan has secured 3 wins in the last five head-to-head matches, while Inter has none
- Inter's offense is strong with an average of 2.36 away goals per game, despite Lautaro Martínez's absence
Risk Factors
- The absence of Lautaro Martínez for Inter (14 goals, 4 assists) weakens their offense
- Inter's goal production has recently declined slightly (1.5 goals/game in the last 5 games compared to a 2.3 season average)
- AC Milan recently lost 0-1 at home against Parma, despite the xG model predicting 2.07 expected goals
Overview
AC Milan (2nd place, 57 points) host Inter (1st place, 67 points) at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in a Serie A top-of-the-table clash
Kick-off is on March 8, 2026, 8:45 PM
The Rossoneri aim to close the 10-point gap to the league leaders
Form
AC Milan shows a form of WWDLW in their last five games, corresponding to 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss
Most recently, they secured a 2-0 away win against Cremonese
Inter recorded a form of LWLWD in their last five games (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)
Their recent matches ended in a 0-0 draw against Como and a 1-2 loss against Bodø / Glimt
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
AC Milan scores an average of 1.64 home goals per game and concedes 1.0 home goals
They kept 5 clean sheets in home games
Inter is strong offensively away from home, with an average of 2.36 goals per away game and conceding only 0.82 goals
Inter achieved 9 clean sheets in away matches
At Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, an average of 2.6 goals are scored per game
Both teams scored in 3 out of 5 games, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 2 out of 5 games
Head-to-Head
In the last five head-to-head matches, AC Milan emerged victorious 3 times, while Inter secured 0 wins, with 2 draws
The goal difference stands at 8:3 in favor of AC Milan
AC Milan won the last encounter on November 23, 2025, with a 1-0 score
Key Players
For AC Milan, Rafael Leão stands out with 9 goals and 2 assists
Christian Pulisic contributed 8 goals and 2 assists
Adrien Rabiot shows stable form with 1 goal and 1 assist in 180 minutes from his last 5 games
For Inter, Federico Dimarco is a key player with 6 goals and 14 assists
Ange-Yoan Bonny scored 5 goals and 3 assists, showing a rising form trend
Piotr Zieliński has contributed 5 goals and 1 assist
Goalkeepers
Mike Maignan of AC Milan has achieved 12 clean sheets in 26 season appearances
Yann Sommer, Inter's goalkeeper, boasts 15 clean sheets in 25 season appearances
Influences
The Stadio Giuseppe Meazza has seen an average of 2.6 goals in the last 5 games
The grass pitch will be used
AC Milan scores an average of 1.64 goals at home and concedes 1.0 goals
Inter scores an average of 2.36 goals away and concedes 0.82 goals