Serie A
Fiorentina - Parma
03/08/2026, 02:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.7
2.7
1.1
1:1
13%2:1
10%2:0
9%1:2
6%3:1
5%What influences the xG?
Fiorentina
Parma
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
50%
Draw
27%
Away Win
22%
Goals
Over 1.5
77%
Under 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
51%
Under 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
29%
Under 3.5
71%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
78%
Away or Draw
50%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
54%
No
46%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a 50% win probability for Fiorentina
- Parma has a solid defense, conceding an average of 1.19 goals per game this season
- Fiorentina's home statistics show an offensive performance of 1.12 goals per home game
Risk Factors
- Fiorentina has suffered losses in their last two matches
- Parma has been the more dominant team in the last five direct encounters
- Fiorentina has conceded an average of 1.56 goals per game this season
Overview
Fiorentina (17th place, 24 points) host Parma (12th place, 33 points) at the Stadio Artemio Franchi. The Serie A match is on March 8, 2026, 4:00 PM. Fiorentina is fighting relegation, while Parma aims to consolidate its mid-table position.
Form
Fiorentina's form across all competitions is WWWLL (3 wins, 2 losses in their last 5 games), including two consecutive losses. Parma's form is LWWWD (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss in their last 5 games). Their last result was a draw.
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Fiorentina averages 1.11 goals scored and 1.56 goals conceded per game (Home: 1.12 goals / 1.19 goals conceded). Parma averages 0.74 goals scored and 1.19 goals conceded per match (Away: 0.75 goals / 1.08 goals conceded). Fiorentina had 18 BTTS and 17 Over 2.5 matches. Parma had 11 BTTS and 9 Over 2.5 matches. The Stadio Artemio Franchi saw an average of 3.6 goals per game, with 80% BTTS and 80% Over 2.5.
Head-to-Head
In 5 head-to-head matches, Fiorentina has 0 wins, Parma has 1 win, and there were 4 draws. Fiorentina scored 6 goals, and Parma scored 7 goals. The last encounter saw Parma win 1-0 on December 27, 2025. Parma has been dominant in recent encounters.
Key Players
Fiorentina: Nicolò Fagioli (24 appearances, 1 goal, 3 assists) shows rising form with a 7.68 rating in the last 5 games. Rolando Mandragora (26 appearances, 6 goals, 1 assist) and Albert Gudmundsson (23 appearances, 4 goals, 3 assists) are crucial.
Parma: Mateo Pellegrino (27 appearances, 7 goals, 1 assist) is the top scorer. Mandela Keita shows rising form (7.11 rating last 5 games). Alessandro Circati is a solid defender (20 appearances, Avg. 6.95).
Goalkeepers
Fiorentina's David de Gea has played in 27 matches (Team 4 clean sheets). Parma's Edoardo Corvi played in 15 matches (Team 9 clean sheets).
Influences
Fiorentina benefits from home advantage. The Stadio Artemio Franchi is known for high-scoring games, averaging 3.6 goals per game. 80% of matches saw both teams score and ended with over 2.5 goals.